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On January 12th, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the threat of criminal prosecution against the Federal Reserve Chairman will exacerbate market concerns about the central banks independence, but he expects the Fed to continue making policy decisions based on economic data. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Conference in 2026, Hatzius said, "Clearly, concerns about a potential blow to the Feds independence are increasing, and the latest news regarding the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell has further reinforced these concerns." He added, "I have no doubt that Powell will continue to make decisions based on economic data for the remainder of his term, and will not be swayed in any direction by pressure—whether its raising or lowering interest rates, it will follow data guidance."On January 12th, ABN Amro economist Roger Quedflich stated in a report that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could jeopardize the Feds prospects for interest rate cuts in the near term. He pointed out that the challenge to the Feds independence could prompt Fed governors to take a hardline stance, delaying rate cut decisions to "defend the Fed." The investigation concerns cost overruns in a Fed headquarters renovation project, which Quedflich believes is seen as a means to pressure the Fed chairman and force his resignation, thereby expanding government influence. He stated, "If the situation continues to escalate, rate cuts may be postponed."On January 12th, ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole stated in a report that the dollar faces a significant risk of decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed had received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice for overspending on its headquarters renovations. He pointed out that this move has reignited market concerns about the Feds independence and could trigger another "sell-America" trade. Pesole stated, "Any further signs of interference in the Feds independence will pose a considerable downside risk to the dollar."ECB Governing Council member Mueller: There is no reason for further interest rate cuts in the short term.January 12th - According to the "Beijing Cyberspace Administration," as of January 12, 2026, Beijing has added 3 new generative artificial intelligence services that have completed registration, bringing the total number of registered generative artificial intelligence services to 212.

NYMEX crude oil expected to rise to $78.85

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), international oil prices regained their multi-year highs touched by the previous day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (OPEC+) stated that they will stick to the existing agreement and gradually increase oil production. This news has driven oil prices to rise sharply. NYMEX crude oil may rise to 78.85 US dollars.

At 15:09 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.15% to $77.74/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.27% to $81.48/barrel.


The two cities closed up 2.27% and 2.56% respectively overnight, and set a new high of US$78.38/barrel since November 10, 2014 and a new high of US$82/barrel since October 14, 2018.

OPEC+ said on Monday (October 4) that it will maintain the current agreement to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month, ignoring calls from major global consumer countries such as the United States and India to accelerate production. This move is expected to further increase inflationary pressures, and consumer countries worry that inflationary pressures will undermine economic recovery.

The organization agreed in July to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day at least until April 2022, in order to gradually end the current 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction plan. The current reduction in production has been much lower than the reduction in production during the worst period of the epidemic.

Barclays Bank analyst Amarpreet Singh said in the report that OPEC+’s decision reflects the group’s internal expectations for next year’s surplus and limited domestic capacity for major oil producers, and lack of urgency to increase production. Given that the oil ministers only reiterated the decision announced in July, the jump in oil prices overnight "seems a bit too much, but it shows how tight the market is.

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74, breaking through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and ((3)) the 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in an upward ((v)) wave starting from $73.15, breaking the 138.2% target of $78.01, and the upper resistance looks to the 161.8% target of $78.85. ((v)) Wave is a sub-wave of three upward waves that started at 67.58 USD.

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