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NYMEX crude oil expected to fall to $75.12

Oct 26, 2021 10:59

On Thursday (October 7), international oil prices were under pressure for the second consecutive trading day, and US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, triggering concerns about demand. Earlier, OPEC+ has expressed concern that demand and prices may weaken. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $75.12.

GMT+8 14:05, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.49% to 77.04 US dollars/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.04% to 81.14 US dollars/barrel.


Overnight, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil closed down 2.52% and 2.10%, respectively, despite the intraday highs of $79.78/barrel since November 10, 2014 and $83.47/barrel since October 10, 2018.

ANZ Bank said in a report: “According to EIA data, US commercial crude oil inventories rose last week and gasoline inventories also surged, raising concerns about weak demand.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday (October 6) that as of the week of October 1, crude oil inventories increased by 2.345 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels, an increase much higher than market expectations of 796,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly soared by 325.6 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 69,000 barrels; distillate stocks fell by 396,000 barrels, which was less than the expected decrease of 844,000 barrels.

Global oil prices have jumped by more than 50% this year, increasing inflationary pressure, which may slow the recovery of the economy from the new crown epidemic and affect consumer demand. Natural gas and coal prices are also climbing.

Sources said on Wednesday that as oil prices hit multi-year highs, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided earlier this week to stick to a plan to gradually increase oil production, partly because of concerns that demand and prices may weaken.

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74 and broke through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and the ((3)) wave 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in the 4 downward waves that started from 79.78 US dollars, falling below the 3 waves 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 76.90 US dollars, and the lower support looks to the 3 waves 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 75.12 US dollars. Waves 3 and 4 are both sub-waves of the upward (1) wave that started from $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.

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