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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.On July 30th, Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates unchanged, but the vote was divided, showing that some policymakers are increasingly convinced that a rate hike is needed to curb rising inflation. Logan, Hammark, and Kashkari all voted against a 25-basis-point increase. This marks the fifth consecutive time officials have chosen to keep rates unchanged. The rest of the committees post-meeting statement was entirely consistent with the statement released after the June meeting. Officials reiterated their commitment to "achieving price stability." However, the dissenting votes suggest that for Fed Chair Warsh, who just took office in May, continuing to hold rates steady will face greater challenges if inflation concerns intensify. Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts, including this Monday. Warsh, nominated by Trump to be Fed Chair earlier this year, stated that he would ensure policy decisions are not influenced by politics.On July 30th, in this interest rate decision, three of the five regional Federal Reserve presidents voting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted against it: Cleveland Fed President Hammark, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan. All three unanimously advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since September 2016 that the Fed has seen three unanimous dissenting votes in a single policy decision, reflecting a growing voice within the Fed supporting a tightening policy. Fed Chairman Warsh, who supports maintaining the current interest rate, has consistently emphasized the Feds responsibility to curb inflation. He is expected to be asked at the press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time why he believes continuing to be patient remains the most appropriate policy option.Market expectations indicate that the market is no longer fully pricing in a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve.Nick Timuraos, the Feds mouthpiece: The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote. Three regional Fed presidents voted against a 25-basis-point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has received three unanimous dissenting votes in a single policy decision.

NYMEX crude oil expected to fall to $75.12

Oct 26, 2021 10:59

On Thursday (October 7), international oil prices were under pressure for the second consecutive trading day, and US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, triggering concerns about demand. Earlier, OPEC+ has expressed concern that demand and prices may weaken. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $75.12.

GMT+8 14:05, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.49% to 77.04 US dollars/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.04% to 81.14 US dollars/barrel.


Overnight, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil closed down 2.52% and 2.10%, respectively, despite the intraday highs of $79.78/barrel since November 10, 2014 and $83.47/barrel since October 10, 2018.

ANZ Bank said in a report: “According to EIA data, US commercial crude oil inventories rose last week and gasoline inventories also surged, raising concerns about weak demand.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday (October 6) that as of the week of October 1, crude oil inventories increased by 2.345 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels, an increase much higher than market expectations of 796,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly soared by 325.6 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 69,000 barrels; distillate stocks fell by 396,000 barrels, which was less than the expected decrease of 844,000 barrels.

Global oil prices have jumped by more than 50% this year, increasing inflationary pressure, which may slow the recovery of the economy from the new crown epidemic and affect consumer demand. Natural gas and coal prices are also climbing.

Sources said on Wednesday that as oil prices hit multi-year highs, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided earlier this week to stick to a plan to gradually increase oil production, partly because of concerns that demand and prices may weaken.

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74 and broke through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and the ((3)) wave 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in the 4 downward waves that started from 79.78 US dollars, falling below the 3 waves 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 76.90 US dollars, and the lower support looks to the 3 waves 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 75.12 US dollars. Waves 3 and 4 are both sub-waves of the upward (1) wave that started from $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.

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