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On August 29th, NBC News, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has been discussing the possibility of running for president in 2028 with close associates in recent months. Hegseth and his wife believe he shares some similarities with Trump, including a tough, confrontational style and conservative stances on social issues, which could garner support from the MAGA base. This month, Hegseth also traveled to Iowa to campaign for Republican lawmakers. Iowa has long been a key outpost in US presidential elections, further fueling speculation that he is preparing to run. If he does run, Hegseth could compete with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and others. However, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating that "Secretary Hegseth will not run for president," and that his primary focus remains leading the Department of Defense. The report points out that the ongoing war with Iran could be a major political burden for Hegseth, with 18 US military personnel already killed and the average US gasoline price rising from less than $3 per gallon to slightly over $4.On August 29th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that todays changes in the US Treasury yield curve released two signals. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed by approximately 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by approximately 10 basis points, showing a flattening trend. El-Erian believes this reflects a dual interpretation in the fixed-income market: in the short term, it represents a hawkish repricing following Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firm commitment to the inflation target; in the long term, it reflects recognition of the Federal Reserves long-term credibility.According to NBC News, U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays is considering running for president in 2028.On August 29th, Deutsche Bank economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. Fed Chairman Warsh, in his Jackson Hole speech, emphasized the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target and released a clearly hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank believes that unless future economic data is "significantly weaker than expected," the threshold for avoiding a 25 basis point rate hike in September is already very high. The market has also quickly increased its bets on rate hikes: CME data shows that the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points or more by December has risen to 51%, up from only 29% the previous day; the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 38%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 11%. Following Warshs speech, market bets on a September rate hike have also clearly intensified.US President Trump criticized New York Governor Hoher for "taking Canadas side," refusing to use the name "American Lake," and "preferring Canada to win," while also supporting Blackman as the next governor of New York.

NASDAQ Composite Treading Water Ahead of US Congressional Elections, CPI Data

Steven Zhao

Nov 08, 2022 17:10

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With many of the major players staying away ahead of Tuesday's U.S. congressional elections and Thursday's significant consumer inflation report, the major U.S. stock indices are trading mixed near the midpoint of the session on Monday.


The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 3262.61, up 159.39 or +0.49%, at 17:00 GMT. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is trading at 10441.84, down 33.41 or -0.32%, while the benchmark S&P 500 Index is at 3771.75, up 1.20 or +0.03%.


If the GOP wins, a split government will result.


Republican presidential candidate Joe Biden's strategy, which may include potential broad tax increases and a windfall tax on energy companies, may be hampered by a split government, analysts say, with the GOP capturing the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.


According to Wells Fargo economists, "in this election outcome scenario, we doubt we would make any significant revisions to our projections for GDP growth, inflation, or the federal funds rate as a result of the election."


Instead, investors see a status quo and political deadlock that prevent significant policy changes as a positive outcome for stocks.

CPI Data Available

Traders are preparing for a potential surprise in Thursday's consumer price index (CPI) report following Friday's unexpected increase in the jobless rate in the United States.


On a historical basis, economists anticipate that inflation will once more register at extraordinarily high levels.


According to FactSet, the consensus CPI report projection predicts an increase in inflation of 0.7% for October. It is anticipated that the so-called core rate of inflation, which doesn't include volatile food and energy prices, will increase by 0.5%. That would come after a reading of 0.4% for the CPI as a whole and 0.6% for the core CPI in September.


According to Factset, the consensus CPI projection calls for an annualized increase in the CPI of 8.0% and an increase in core inflation of 6.5%. From the September data, when the annual inflation rate was 8.2% overall and 6.6% for core, that would only indicate a small set of gains.

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