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July 24th - Marcel Thieliant, Head of Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be more pessimistic about Japanese economic activity and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Thieliant noted that although the BOJ believed in June that downside risks to economic activity had diminished, "we believe that the subsequent resurgence of oil prices has dampened the central banks optimism." Thieliant added that the BOJ will "certainly maintain its view that inflation risks are skewed to the upside." Capital Economics expects the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.25% in October.July 24th - SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are about to face scrutiny from investors regarding memory chip demand. Currently, the South Korean stock market has become a key indicator of global AI market sentiment, but it is experiencing significant volatility driven by leveraged chip trading. Japanese competitor Kioxia will also release updates, addressing the issue of its market capitalization halved in just a few weeks, highlighting the continued risk of market volatility amid growing concerns that the AI-driven rally has gone too far. HSBC analysts point out that rising high-bandwidth memory (HBM) prices and the launch of the more expensive HBM4 chip, crucial for AI development, should support the performance of Samsung and SK Hynix, thus alleviating investor concerns about a slowdown in profits in the second half of the year.Hong Kong-listed AI stocks saw some gains, with Zhipu (02513.HK) rising over 10%.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 1.505%, hitting a new high since May 1995.On July 24th, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.4950%, and the lowest was 0.7420%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0130%, and the lowest was 0.9240%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0620%, and the lowest was 0.9640%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Memorial Day Produces a Quiet Futures Market

Skylar Shaw

May 31, 2022 14:53

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Monday's S&P 500 futures reached the 50 Day EMA. We've pulled back to create a shooting star. I wouldn't read too much into the candlestick, but it does signal that continuing straight up from here will be harder than some expected. I believe it's just a matter of time until we sell down, and there's not much going on that tells me the market surge should continue.


Bond rates have fallen, which is a comfort, but the market will soon realize that people are purchasing bonds for safety, which is why yields are down. Various economic conditions haven't improved, either.


I believe we just saw a nasty bear market rally. If we break below 4150, the first selling opportunity appears. Below 4100, I expect heavy selling.


The market might reach 4300 without any fundamental change. At that moment, the 200 Day EMA comes into play. Several weeks ago, there was a selling "shelf" at 4300.