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On May 14, UBS published a report stating that Samsonite (01910.HK)s first-quarter profit margin was lower than expected, with adjusted EBITDA of US$128 million, 16% lower than the banks expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected profit margins. The bank slightly raised its revenue forecast for Samsonite by 1% to reflect the better-than-expected guidance for North American sales trends in the second quarter; but lowered its adjusted EBITDA profit margin forecast by about 110 basis points, as operating deleveraging in the first quarter was more significant than originally expected. The bank accordingly lowered its per-share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 2% and 2% respectively. However, due to the reduction in the weighted average cost of funds forecast from 9.9% to 9.5%, the target price rose by 9% from HK$15 to HK$16.3, with a "neutral" rating, as the current price already reflects low earnings visibility. The report added that its strong free cash flow generation may pave the way for a new round of share repurchases, which the bank believes can support valuations.On May 14, HSBC published a report, maintaining its target price of $48 for JD.com (JD.O) and its investment rating of "buy". HSBC said that JD.coms revenue in the first fiscal quarter increased by 16% year-on-year to 301 billion yuan, exceeding the banks and the markets general expectations by 3-4%. Product sales increased by 16% year-on-year, of which electronic products and household appliances increased by 17%, and daily necessities increased by 15%. The bank said that driven by market improvements, JD.coms service revenue increased by 14% year-on-year during the period. Gross profit margin was better than expected, reaching 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 43% year-on-year to 12.8 billion yuan, 23-25% higher than the markets general expectations and the banks expectations. HSBC expects JD.coms revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2025 to increase by 15% year-on-year, with continued trade-in momentum and takeaway business (FD) loss income falling by 21% year-on-year.Sony Group: It is expected that this years operating profit will be negatively affected by 100 billion yen due to US tariffs.Sony Group: Will repurchase up to 1.66% of its own shares, worth 250 billion yen.On May 14, Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK) reportedly carried out a more extensive layoff operation since the bonus was distributed in late March. The reduction in individual departments of Hang Seng is about 10% to 50%, and the layoff operation is expected to be completed by the end of June. According to reports, Hang Seng Bank has laid off employees in many departments since March. At this stage, it mainly involves the logistics support department, including the strategy and corporate development department. In addition, the layoff departments also include the information technology department, corporate communications department and Hang Seng Index Company. According to reports, even if employees in the affected departments have not been fired, they have to reapply for the position and compete with internal and external applicants. However, even if you apply for a position in the original department, the title may have changed due to the reorganization. Currently, Hang Seng is recruiting more than 100 positions, and the relevant employees can apply for any position at will.

Leading Vs. Lagging Indicators: Which One is Better

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 16:40

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The primary reason for establishing and tracking specific metrics is to track the progress toward defined targets. However, not all metrics can immediately provide the information people require. Lagging indicators take a long time to alter and reflect the effects of the efforts at a later point. On the other hand, leading indicators track the activities you believe will assist you to achieve the goal and maybe track on a more continuous basis.

 

Because leading and lagging indicators require various time frames, it is critical to understand when people are tracking a lagging measure to uncover leading indications to assist traders. Understanding the distinction between leading and lagging indicators and how they relate to the objectives can assist people in keeping their teams on track and monitoring progress toward their targets effectively.

What are Leading and Lagging Indicators?

Indicator 

Anything that can be used to forecast future financial or economic patterns is considered an indicator.

Lagging Indicators

Typically, lagging indicators are "output" focused. They are simple to quantify yet difficult to improve or impact. A lagging indicator is one that typically occurs after an event occurs. The significance of a lagging indicator is its capacity to confirm the existence of a pattern. Here is an illustration: Numerous firms strive to meet a release date by delivering some scope. Items Delivered is a straightforward lagging indicator that is simple to quantify. Consider a list of completed and delivered items.

 

However, how can people meet the future delivery objective? There are various "leading" indicators for delivering items predictably:

Leading Indicators

These indicators are more easily influenced yet more difficult(er) to quantify. It is much more difficult because people must establish processes and instruments to measure them. A great deal of what traders will learn and produce will emerge when they begin producing products. People have no idea how much work was expended until they completed the task. Moreover, if there is anything like this, the lagging indicator is a moving target due to fluctuating priorities and dependencies. By utilizing leading indicators, people can determine whether they are tracking on the correct path. Leading indicators can influence their behavior or environment while there is still time.

 

We have less certainty about upcoming deliverables as our ready backlog shrinks. An insecure delivery team demonstrates that we lack accountability for meeting our commitments, and unstable velocity suggests that we are making insufficient progress in estimating completion by the release date.

Why Leading and Lagging Indicators are important in business?

A small business owner's primary jobs, duties, and obligations are to optimize revenue, profit, cash flow, income, and long-term net worth by constantly achieving greater results and performance with the same amount of time, effort, activities, people, and money put in the business. Second, to continuously cut costs, neutralize or eliminate vulnerabilities, risks, and dangers, and establish a strategic competitive advantage in order to compete against growing competition.

 

Business's success will be determined by the capacity to discover, analyze, implement, and manage the performance of these straightforward yet critical Lagging and Leading Indicators. Leading and Lagging Indicators will help people stay focused on what is truly important and will help people restrict their focus on the actions necessary to achieve their business goals more quickly.

 

The One Thing will ensure that the revenue exceeds the effort - It will eliminate 90% of the hard work and show people where to invest each hour they work and each dollar they invest in their business. they will do more in a few months or years than the majority of individuals do in a lifetime, achieving more outcomes and performance with the same amount of time, effort, capital, and people — maximizing and multiplying their results with the least amount of effort, expense, and risk.

When Should Traders Choose Lagging Indicators?

Lagging indicators are the conventional safety measures used to track compliance with safety regulations. These are the bottom-line figures that indicate the overall effectiveness of the facility's safety program. They inform people of the number of people injured and the severity of the injuries.

When Should Traders Choose Leading Indicators?

Future safety performance and continual improvement are the primary emphases of leading indicators. These procedures are proactive and document what staff is doing to prevent injuries regularly.

How to Use Lagging Indicators

Lagging indicators are always generated by a recent occurrence and are more self-explanatory than leading indicators.

 

Suppose to evaluate the outcome of an event, a product launch, a sales training program, or anything else. In that case, people are using lagging indicators to establish who attended, what was created, and how participants, in hindsight, accepted it.

 

Lagging indicators are most effective when combined with leading indicators to determine trends and whether or not objectives were fulfilled. This can be simplified by using the appropriate technology infrastructure, which compares leading and lagging indicators and provides insight.

How to Use Leading Indicators

The measurement of leading indicators is more difficult than lagging indicators, and that is because they are more indefinite than lagging indicators.



A leading indicator is a metric that indicates the direction in which the organization is heading. For example, suppose someone to focus exclusively on trailing metrics such as revenue. The risk missing an important but relatively tiny sector of the market that purchases from a geographical region where people do not have a presence.

 

That is where leading indicators come into play. By establishing metrics such as tracking individual purchases outside of specific zip codes or regions, people can determine possible new markets for their business.

 

That is an insight that cannot be gained solely by examining overall revenue. When a question requires one to consider future growth and success, it is appropriate to employ a leading indicator.

Example of Lagging Indicators

Because lagging indicators record what has already occurred, they can be a valuable corporate asset. However, some enterprise groups place an undue emphasis on lagging indicators due to their ease of measurement. As a result, they devote relatively little time to leading indicators.

 

Consider the following scenario: People have just scheduled a business retreat and are attempting to gauge its success. One approach to accomplish this is by using lagging indicators such as:

 

  • How many attendees were there at the retreat? This might provide traders with a notion of what is of widespread interest.

  • What was the cost of the retreat? This is beneficial for calculating the ROI.

  • How many attendees enrolled in workshops? This number indicates how interesting the programming was.

  • Which workshops drew the largest crowds? This metric indicates which segments of the program were most engaging.

Example of Leading Indicators 

Now pretend you are in charge of your company's product development division, and the objective is to satisfy the release commitments you promised to the consumers.

 

The consequence is straightforward: you either completed the tasks that committed to or did not. However, how do the exert influence on the outcome? What activities must carry out in order to get the desired result?

 

For instance, ensuring sufficient ready work in the backlog prevents the delivery team from beginning work on "unready" work. Ascertain that your team members are available when required and are not being shared with other teams. Ascertain that the team is resolving defects as they occur, rather than waiting until the release's end. Anticipate the delivery team's needs and eliminate any business, organizational, or technological risks that could cause them to delay.

Leading Vs. Lagging Indicators: Pros and Cons

Pros of Lagging Indicators

A clear indicator of success: In many circumstances, the metric that best reflects the impact of your efforts will be a lagging indicator, as improvements take time to take effect.

Cons of Lagging Indicators

They require time to measure: By definition, lagging indicators track long-term trends, which fluctuate over weeks, months, or even years.

 

You cannot see why: Lagging indicators reveal an outcome but do not reveal the elements that influenced it. People may be aware that their turnover rate is high—the lagging indicator—but they are unaware of which of their company's actions contributed to that rate.

 

Difficult to change: Because lagging indicators are frequently high-level measurements, such as revenue, that are influenced by a wide variety of various departments inside the organization, minor projects may have little demonstrable impact. It can be difficult to determine if small statistical variations are caused by the actions or by chance.

Pros of Leading Indicators

Faster feedback: By tracking leading indicators, your team can receive feedback on their work more rapidly and judge which step may be necessary to accomplish their overarching objectives.

 

Team involvement: Because broad goals frequently have multiple components, there are typically numerous leading indicators to follow. Different team members and departments might own distinct KPIs, ensuring that everyone contributes to the company's overall goals.

 

Monitoring leading indicators for the safety and health program can help people enhance performance in critical areas like management leadership, worker participation, education and training, and program evaluation and improvement.

 

Increasing employee involvement in safety initiatives: People cannot keep their employees safe unless they are educated, aware, and willing to follow safety rules. Monitoring leading indicators carefully can help them determine how engaged their team is, allowing them to take the necessary preventative action to avert possible safety hazards. While both leading and lagging indicators are necessary components of a successful safety program, leading indicators should play a greater role because they seek to avoid accidents rather than flagging improvements that need to be made following an incident. Utilizing leading indicators to identify and correct problems benefits the bottom line, and it certainly is a win-win situation for both employees and companies.

Cons of Leading Indicators

If someone utilizes a leading indicator as a proxy for a lagging indicator, keep in mind that while the leading measure should affect the lagging indicator, the effect may be less than expected. It is critical to track their continuing progress and the actual outcome of their improvements.

Use Them Together Instead of Apart

While a lagging indicator may be the optimal statistic for determining the outcome of the endeavor, tracking only lagging indicators is problematic. Results take time to manifest, and lagging indicators cannot assist people in making continuing adjustments.

 

The approach is to employ both leading and lagging indicators in conjunction. Continuously monitor leading indicators to make adjustments that will help increase the chances of success.

 

Utilize leading indicators to supplement the lagging indicators and aid in tracking development more effectively. The following two examples illustrate how leading, and lagging indicators work well together in various settings.

Pipeline volume (leading) & sales revenue (lagging)

Assume you have set a quarterly sales revenue target of $100K. Sales revenue is a lagging indicator since it measures what has already occurred—money earned. To track your success over time, you should strive to increase the overall Pipeline Volume.

 

Pipeline Volume is a metric that indicates the amount of sales-qualified leads in people sales pipeline. Suppose them to have established lead quotas based on the $100K target. In that case, Pipeline Volume should indicate if they are making adequate progress toward that revenue goal or whether they need to ramp up their lead generation efforts.

Sales Cycle Length (Lagging) & Average Stage Length (Leading)

If people are attempting to shorten the time required to close deals through new processes, the lagging indicator should be Sales Cycle Length. They will not be able to observe the outcomes of new processes until they have completed a full sales cycle with numerous deals and compared the length of the cycle to the length of previous deals.

 

To monitor the progress of the initiatives, look at the Average Stage Length for each stage of the sales cycle—the average time an opportunity spends at that stage. This segmentation of the sales cycle eliminates the need to follow an opportunity end-to-end throughout the process. Rather than waiting until a fresh opportunity cohort completes the cycle, traders can look at people who are now in a stage and determine how much time they spend there, rather than waiting until a fresh opportunity cohort completes the cycle.

 

Average Stage Length acts as a leading indicator because if a lead spends less time in each stage, they will spend less time overall in the sales cycle. By examining each stage separately, people may more quickly discover (and overcome) bottlenecks that could be prolonging your sales cycle.

Track the leading vs. lagging indicators at different intervals

While monitoring both leading and trailing indicators consistently is critical, they do not have to be tracked simultaneously. Because lagging indicators are slow to change, there is no purpose in monitoring them daily or even monthly. Rather than that, conduct fewer frequent checks, possibly monthly or quarterly, depending on the metric.

 

On the other hand, leading indicators fluctuate more rapidly and should be monitored often. Consider putting them on a dashboard so you can monitor them on a daily or weekly basis in real-time. Display the dashboard in the workplace or share it over Slack or email to ensure that the team is always aware of the leading indicators.

Final Thoughts

To optimize the facility's safety performance, people should employ leading and lagging indicators. It is critical to base their metrics on impact when employing leading indicators. For instance, do not only keep track of the number and attendance of safety meetings and training sessions; quantify the meeting's impact by determining the percentage of attendees who met the meeting's primary learning objectives.