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On April 27th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article stating that the price shock triggered by the Middle East wars has pushed market expectations towards an environment where interest rates remain at higher levels for an extended period, affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan, although the differences have recently narrowed, its policy framework remains self-contained. He pointed out that the current situation is not merely a simple price shock, but also accompanied by a negative demand shock from the "second-round effect," and in addition to these direct economic impacts, there is a potential risk of contagion to financial instability. He added, "All of this underscores the uncertainty of the outlook: central banks will face a series of difficult trade-offs, and I think these decisions likely (or should) boil down to a sobering question: Of all the mistakes we can make, which is the least irreversible? For central banks with a single mandate, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, this question is relatively easier to answer; but for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate, the situation is much more complex."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian parliamentary committee has passed a proposal to establish a crisis management ministry.On April 27th, the National Energy Administration held its quarterly press conference. According to the press conference, 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green power connections, and 99 direct green power connection projects nationwide have been approved, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 34.05 million kilowatts of new energy. Recently, based on the single-user direct green power connection policy, a multi-user direct green power connection policy has been formulated, allowing new energy sources to directly supply green electricity to multiple users through dedicated lines. This will promote the accelerated clean energy substitution in industrial parks and zero-carbon parks, and facilitate the wider consumption of new energy. The relevant policies will be released soon.On April 27, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Kassym-Jomart Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 26th that the United States has exaggerated its bargaining chips in the energy game. Ghalibaf stated that the US has used numerous tactics, and its related strategies are in a predicament. The summer travel peak will exacerbate the pressure on the US, while Iran still holds unused "key trump cards."On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation selected seven provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong—to conduct a pilot program allowing registration authorities to apply to the Peoples Courts for compulsory liquidation. The pilot programs main tasks include three aspects: First, establishing a working mechanism. Market regulation departments in the pilot areas will proactively connect with the Peoples Courts, conduct in-depth research, and determine the timetable, roadmap, and safeguard measures for the pilot program in their respective regions. Second, improving the standardization of the liquidation system. This involves establishing a corporate screening mechanism to clarify the scope of application, streamlining the various stages and material requirements for administrative and judicial coordination, supporting the liquidation team in fulfilling its duties, and encouraging the establishment of dedicated windows for efficient handling of matters such as file inquiries and deregistration. Third, strengthening business data sharing. This involves promoting the establishment of data interfaces with the Peoples Courts to achieve information sharing, and improving the functions of the "one-stop" online service platform for deregistration, providing "fully online" services for compulsory liquidation and deregistration of bankrupt enterprises.

International oil prices hit a new high in the past seven years, a major dilemma in the northern hemisphere is getting worse

Oct 26, 2021 11:01

On Monday (October 11), international oil prices soared again, continuing the previous seven-week streak, because the energy crisis that plagued the major economies showed no signs of alleviation due to the recovery of economic activities and the limited supply of major producing countries .

GMT+8 15:21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 1.94% to US$80.89/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 1.58% to US$83.69/barrel. The two cities respectively refreshed their highs since October 31, 2014 to US$81.10/barrel and their highs since October 10, 2018 to US$83.88/barrel.


As more people who have been vaccinated get rid of the lockdown, economic recovery is gaining momentum, and coal and natural gas prices have soared, making oil more attractive as a fuel for power generation, driving the oil market higher. The two major crude oil markets have been rising for seven consecutive weeks.

Due to coal shortages, major Asian economies are experiencing power shortages. The Central Bank of India kept its policy interest rate unchanged last week, lowering its retail inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2022 from 5.7% to 5.3%, but at the same time warned of the risks posed by rising fuel prices.

With the increase in heating demand, the energy crisis sweeping the world is exacerbating the predicament of wintering in the northern hemisphere. ING Economics said in a report: “Considering the expected demand boost due to the conversion of natural gas to oil, the market has shown interest in related demand adjustments.”

Kelvin Wong, a commodity analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore, said: "There is no new fundamental news that directly affects price trends in the day. Inter-market factors suggest that inflation expectations are further rising, which is supporting the bullish trend of oil prices."

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday (October 8) that as of the week of October 5, fund managers increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options by 8,902 to 325,578.

The latest data from Baker Hughes of the United States shows that, taking advantage of rising prices, US oil and gas drillers added 5 new wells last week. This is the fifth consecutive week of increase in oil and gas drilling platforms.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided last week to maintain the current policy of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month. OPEC will release its monthly report later this week.

A person familiar with the matter said on Monday that Saudi Aramco has agreed to supply at least two North Asian buyers with additional crude oil in November, while meeting the full contract volume of the other three buyers. One of the sources said that the supply is expected to be fully sufficient this month.

Saudi Aramco will also reduce the price of crude oil sold to Asia for the second consecutive month in November, which shows that as OPEC+ gradually increases production before the end of the year, Saudi Arabia is eager to remain competitive.

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