International oil prices are expected to remain strong in the future, Qatar complains: unable to fill the gap between supply and demand

On Tuesday (October 12), international oil prices fell, which is expected to end the previous three consecutive trading days of gains. However, with the rebound in global demand leading to energy shortages in major economies, the outlook for the crude oil market is expected to remain strong.

At 15:23 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.24% to US$80.33/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.03% to US$83.63/barrel. Overnight, the two cities respectively set a new high of US$82.18/barrel since October 29, 2014 and a new high of US$84.60/barrel since October 10, 2018.


James Whistler, SSY's global head of energy derivatives in Singapore, said that the crude oil market has been involved in a widespread rebound in the entire energy industry. High natural gas and coal prices have boosted the prospect of electricity companies turning to rely more on oil for power generation.

Driven by energy shortages in Asia, Europe and the United States, electricity prices have risen to record levels in recent weeks. Analysts estimate that gas-to-oil conversion in the power generation industry may increase global crude oil demand by 250,000 to 750,000 barrels per day.

Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler, said: “As demand seems to be picking up, the focus is on weak supply. Given the high global natural gas prices, the potential for fuel conversion has an additional dimension, so there are multiple factors here. The push is continuing (higher oil prices)."

Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said: "Broadly speaking, we are optimistic about the outlook for energy demand in Asia and Europe before the upcoming peak in demand. In the short term, oil prices may continue to rise."

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "There is still a lot of momentum behind the oil rally, and the fundamentals are still extremely favorable. Even if we see oil prices return to triple digits later this year, it will not surprise us."

Qatar, the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), told customers on Monday that it cannot help lower energy prices and supply more fuel to the market. Saadal-Kaabi, the country’s energy minister, said: “We have done our best to provide all our customers with the scale of energy we can provide. I am dissatisfied with the soaring oil and gas prices.”

Rising energy prices have also exacerbated the inflationary pressures faced by recovering economies. Data released on Tuesday showed that Japan’s September wholesale inflation rate was at a 13-year high. Analysts said that rising input costs have put more pressure on manufacturers that have been hit by supply restrictions and cast a shadow over the prospects of the world's third largest economy, which relies on exports to ease the blow of weak consumption.

British steelmakers said that unless the government provides help, they may have to stop production and face dire consequences. A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that the government is listening to industry concerns and discussing whether further action is needed.

In Spain, steel manufacturer Sidenor said that a plant near Bilbao in the northern part of the country has ceased production after increasing energy costs led to a 25% increase in overall production costs. The Dutch Data Center Association has asked political leaders to limit electricity prices, provide corporate tax breaks or introduce subsidies to support companies investing in clean energy.