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U.S. sources say that U.S. Marines opened fire on protesters at the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, last Sunday.Futures analyst Guangda Futures reports: On March 2nd, COMEX gold opened higher and trended upwards, before a sharp sell-off at the close, ending slightly higher at $5335.9 per ounce, a gain of 1.68%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but then fell in the night session, closing at 1184.90 yuan per gram, a gain of 1.14%. 1. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.4 in February, expanding for the second consecutive month, but the input price index surged to 70.5, a near four-year high. Its worth noting that this data reflects market conditions prior to the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran this weekend. Afterwards, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly ceased, and international oil prices recorded their largest single-day increase since the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 on Monday, meaning that price pressure may continue to rise. Given that tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are creating a persistent undercurrent of inflation, manufacturers may be forced to pass on costs to consumers, squeezing the Federal Reserves room for interest rate cuts. Last night, the US dollar index rose by more than 1%, and precious metals rose and then fell back. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict escalated rapidly over the weekend. The joint US-Israel assassination attempt plunged Iran into regime chaos, unexpectedly reigniting geopolitical risks and initially reflecting some safe-haven demand. However, as the conflict progressed, the market gradually withdrew from this safe-haven panic, shifting towards concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a rebound in oil prices due to disruptions in oil production facilities, and renewed expectations of global inflation. This had a mixed impact on gold. Inflation expectations are generally favorable for gold prices, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut and further easing has been further delayed. Investors should continue to closely monitor the US-Iran situation. Whether the conflict slows down or escalates further will determine the subsequent trend of gold prices. Strategically, timing is more important than directional choice; avoid chasing highs excessively. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Japans energy minister stated that the suspension of Qatars liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations will not immediately affect the countrys energy supply.The main Shanghai silver futures contract plunged in the short term, falling more than 4.00% intraday, and is currently trading at 22,888.00 yuan/kg.March 3 - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the persistent high risk of supply disruptions. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at Vontobel, stated, "The ongoing military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has caused turmoil in the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy trade, has effectively ceased operation due to the conflict. As the situation develops, the duration and intensity of the conflict will be key factors shaping the energy landscape in the short term."

International gold prices are suppressed by the strong US dollar, investors are digesting a big uncertainty

Oct 26, 2021 10:59

On Wednesday (October 6), international gold prices fell, pressured by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. At the same time, investors paid attention to the U.S. non-agricultural employment report, which is crucial to the Fed’s reduction support schedule .

At 15:31 GMT+8, spot gold fell 0.51% to US$1751.16 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.54% to US$1751.4 per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 94.222.


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a high of 1.571% since June 18; the U.S. dollar is not far from the high of 94.504 recorded last week since September 28 last year, weakening the attractiveness of gold to holders of other currencies.

IG Market analyst Kyle Rodda said that based on monetary policy expectations, the momentum of gold prices is biased towards the downside. “There are still significant signs of rising cost pressures in the global economy, which will continue to prompt investors to pay attention to the central bank’s tightening policies.”

Friday (October 8) US employment data is expected to show that 470,000 new jobs will be added in September. This data is critical to the timetable for the Fed to cut its economic support.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA, said in a report: "The forthcoming non-agricultural employment report may change the logic of the gold market, and the price of gold may consolidate between US$1745 and US$1775. Once fully digested and reduced It is expected that the financial market will pay more attention to the economic prospects of 2022, which will give many investors the green light to return to the gold market."

Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans said on Tuesday (October 5) that he still believes that supply bottlenecks are the main reason for the recent rise in inflation, but that inflation will subside. He also reiterated that the central bank is about to start reducing the scale of monthly asset purchases.

Moody's Investor Services (Moody's) said on Tuesday that the stable outlook on the US Aaa rating reflects the company's belief that the US will be able to raise the debt ceiling and continue to fulfill its debt service obligations in full on time.

Two weeks before the October 18 deadline, U.S. President Biden said on Monday that unless Republicans and Democrats work together to vote to approve an increase in the debt ceiling in the next two weeks, the federal government may exceed $28.4 trillion. The debt ceiling of China has defaulted on an unprecedented level.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that it is "critical" for Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling before the October 18 deadline, otherwise it will lead to the first default in the United States. The two-year debt ceiling suspension period expired in July, and Democrats and Republicans in Congress are still divided on whether to extend or raise the debt ceiling.

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