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November 15th - Stephen Innes, Managing Partner of SPI Asset Management, stated that with the US government reopening, a backlog of important data will be released, including employment and inflation indicators, which the market expects to be weak. Weaker US data could depress US Treasury yields, reigniting market expectations for an interest rate cut in early 2026 and providing room for a rebound in gold prices, which have been squeezed by rising real yields. The recent pullback in gold prices appears more like position adjustments than a trend reversal. The outlook for gold remains positive, and investors will closely watch US real yields, a weaker dollar, and upcoming data. If the data points to a cooling US economy, gold could rebound next week.November 15th - According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is accelerating its succession planning, preparing for Tim Cook to potentially step down as CEO as early as next year. Multiple sources familiar with internal discussions revealed that Apples board and senior management have recently expedited preparations to welcome Cooks departure. John Ternus, Apples senior vice president of hardware engineering, is widely considered Cooks most likely successor, but a final decision has not yet been made. Sources close to Apple indicate that this long-awaited transition is not due to the companys current performance, as Apples iPhone sales season at the end of this year is expected to be very strong. If a successor is announced early next year, the new leadership team will have time to establish themselves before Apples key annual events, including the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June and the iPhone launch event in September.According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is preparing for Tim Cook to step down as CEO as early as next year, with John Ternus, the companys senior vice president of hardware engineering, widely considered the most likely successor.According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is stepping up its planning for a successor to CEO Tim Cook.On November 15th, the European Parliament adopted its position paper on amendments to the European Climate Law on the 13th, supporting the addition of a legally binding 2040 mid-term climate target to the existing EU climate law. The position paper requires the EU to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, while also supporting the European Commissions proposal to introduce flexibility in achieving the target. The European Parliament stated its support for member states to offset emissions reductions of up to 5% of their 1990 emissions by purchasing international carbon credits from other partner countries starting in 2036. The European Parliament also advocated for incorporating permanent carbon removal into the EU Emissions Trading System, in addition to existing reduction methods, to offset some emissions that are difficult to reduce.

Institutions lowered their expectations for gold and silver prices, and do not believe that the 2013 plummeting market will recur

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

Gold is still trading below US$1,800. BMO Capital Markets believes that there is not much good news in the gold market in the fourth quarter of this year.



The agency once again lowered its expectations for gold and silver prices. In a report released last Thursday, analysts said that the Fed’s new hawkish tendencies will suppress precious metals for the rest of this year and next year .

Analysts pointed out in the report: “As inflation spreads in the value chain, many central banks have either begun to cancel loose monetary policy, or at least begin this journey, which also includes the Federal Reserve. Although negative real yields should prevent Macro assets are rapidly shifting from commodities to precious metals, but it is reasonable to be cautious about precious metals until the scale of bond purchases is reduced."

According to the bank’s latest forecast, analysts expect the average price of gold this year to be around US$1,781 per ounce, which is 1% lower than their previous forecast of US$1,803. At the same time, the bank predicts that the average price of gold in 2022 is approximately US$1,656 per ounce, which is also 1% lower than the previous forecast of US$1,669.

The bank also predicts that this year's silver price will average around US$25.10 per ounce, which is 3% lower than the previous estimate of US$25.9. By 2022, the average price of silver is expected to reach around US$24.90 per ounce, which is 2% lower than the previous forecast.

Although the Bank of Montreal has a slightly more pessimistic view of gold and silver, they pointed out that these two precious metals are "declining, but they are not out."

Analysts said that they do not expect the gold market to reproduce the plunge in 2013. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve began to implement monetary policy normalization, which led to a sharp drop in the price of gold.

Compared with the infamous “taper tantrum” in 2013, the price of gold has been performing well so far. In 2013, the price of gold plummeted by nearly 30% in six months. Although there was a large outflow of funds from ETFs in the first quarter, especially in North America, and the Fed is expected to reduce the scale of bond purchases by the end of the year, the Bank of Montreal capital market believes that there is no sufficient reason to withdraw from gold.

As for silver, the Canadian bank still believes that this precious metal has long-term potential. Analysts said: "We expect investors to have positive sentiments regarding the long-term industrial uses of silver, especially those related to the energy transition, to support silver prices in the short term."



Spot gold daily chart

At 8:34 on October 5th, GMT+8, spot gold was quoted at US$1766.59 per ounce.

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