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Real-time News
July 9th - According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, the minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting showed that the disagreements among officials stemmed primarily from differing assessments of future economic trends, rather than a fundamental conflict over interest rate hikes or cuts. Two possible scenarios emerged within the Fed: if inflation remained high, almost all officials believed that higher interest rates were necessary, or even further tightening of policy; however, if inflation quickly fell back to the 2% target level, almost all officials also believed that current interest rates could be maintained, or even cut in the future. He believes that the phrase "quickly falling back to 2%" is crucial, as it preserves the Feds policy adjustment space. The real concern for officials now is whether inflation will continue to rebound or re-enter a downward trend. Timiraos concluded that the Feds next move still depends on economic data, especially inflation performance. The market had previously bet on interest rate cuts, but the latest minutes show that significant uncertainty remains regarding the policy outlook.July 9th - The minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting indicated that global inflation has risen significantly since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with retail energy and producer prices rising sharply in much of Europe and Asia. Some central banks, including the European Central Bank, have raised policy rates to combat rising inflation. Overall, most foreign central banks emphasized that high inflation could trigger a second round of transmission effects, thus requiring mitigation. Despite a weak outlook for economic output growth, these central banks have hinted at future measures such as interest rate hikes or a slowdown in the pace of easing.July 9th - The minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting indicated that existing indicators suggest real GDP growth maintained a solid pace in the second quarter. Real private domestic final spending—including personal consumption expenditures and private fixed investment, which typically reflects economic fundamentals better than real GDP—rebounded in the second quarter, even outpacing GDP growth. Strong real consumption spending, coupled with continued expansion in the artificial intelligence sector, drove real investment spending in data centers, high-tech equipment, and software. April data showed continued strong growth in imports and exports of high-tech products, and a significant increase in energy exports.On July 9th, InvestingLive analyst Adam Button stated that the Federal Reserves June meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, indicating that officials remain highly concerned about inflation risks. Button believes the Feds policy focus is shifting, with market attention moving from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates." The minutes showed that some officials expect interest rates to be higher than current levels by the end of the year. He also pointed out that core inflationary pressures in the US remain significant, with rising prices in areas such as airfares and petrochemicals suggesting that inflation is not entirely driven by short-term factors. Overall, there is increasing disagreement within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rates, but high inflation remains a key factor influencing policy direction.July 9th - Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that policymakers still expect "real GDP to maintain solid growth" for the remainder of 2026. They also noted that multiple employment indicators suggest the labor market remains stable and does not appear to be a source of inflationary pressures. The June 17th statement was shorter than those released after recent meetings, foreshadowing action from Warsh, who has pledged to radically change the Feds communication strategy. The minutes showed that several officials agreed it was time to consider significant revisions to the post-meeting statement.
