EUR/USD
1.17088
-0.262%
Gold
4676.82
-0.812%
Oil
98.742
0.030%
USD/JPY
157.783
0.110%
GBP/USD
1.35142
-0.187%
GBP/JPY
213.235
-0.073%
Real-time News
According to a Reuters poll, 27 out of 56 economists believe the Bank of England will keep interest rates at 3.75% this year; seven economists expect at least one rate cut, and 22 expect at least one rate hike.On May 13th, Matthew Amis of Aberdeen Investments stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in the coming months, thus pushing down short-term UK gilt yields. He noted, "If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming weeks, the Bank of England will not raise interest rates, and the expectation of a rate hike already priced into short-term UK gilt yields will be eliminated, leading to a decline in yields." He added that investors are hoping for a short-term resolution to the Middle East conflict.Polish central bank board member Kotecki: Discussions about raising interest rates in Poland may begin in July.On May 13th, Oxford Economics Chief Economist Daniel Harenberg stated in a report that the inflationary surge triggered by the Iran war is being amplified by a "highly sensitive" business and consumer environment. He pointed out that after years of economic shocks, businesses and households are now reacting more quickly to inflation-related news, thus increasing the risk of a price chain reaction. Harenberg stated, "When markets are highly focused on inflation, businesses react more strongly to inflation news and adjust prices more quickly; households are also more likely to revise their inflation expectations, thus driving stronger demands for wage increases." Oxford Economics predicts that this round of oil supply shocks could push inflation in major economies up by an additional 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points in 2026, meaning that global central banks may need to shift to tighter monetary policy more significantly than the market currently expects.May 13 (Reuters) - Iran is using its control over the Strait of Hormuz and recent tolls levied on transit vessels to make up for a fiscal shortfall as the US blockade severely damages its oil export capabilities. The Iranian military stated that any country wishing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must do so under Iranian "supervision," but did not specify the methods of supervision. Several shipping brokers revealed that in recent weeks Iran has required transit vessels to obtain prior permits and levied tolls of up to $2 million per vessel. Iranian military spokesman Mohammad Akraminia stated in an interview with Iranian state media Press TV: "This coordinated control not only enhances Irans monitoring and sovereignty over the region, but will also generate revenue for the country equivalent to twice its oil revenue."
