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Real-time News
According to the Wall Street Journal: US President Trump submitted the Saudi Arabia nuclear agreement to Congress.August 26th - The Bank of Koreas policy decision this week may not be finalized until the last minute. Slightly more than half of economists expect the central bank to raise interest rates for the second consecutive meeting to maintain policy leadership, given stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistent underlying inflation. Of the 22 economists surveyed, 14 predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3% on Thursday, while 8 expect it to keep the rate unchanged. Furthermore, the Bank of Korea will release its latest forecasts, which are expected to support further tightening of monetary policy. Given stronger-than-expected exports and domestic demand, the banks economic growth forecast for 2026 is expected to be significantly revised upward from 2.6% in May. Similarly, the inflation forecast is also likely to be revised upward from 2.7% in May, reflecting rising oil prices, currency depreciation earlier this year, and signs that the semiconductor boom is driving investment and consumption. Of course, the central bank may also cite the recent rebound of the won as a factor to ease the urgency of an immediate rate hike. If the bank keeps rates unchanged, investors are likely to set their expectations for a rate hike in October.On August 26, according to Axios, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told officials from several allied countries that the US is not currently expected to launch a new military strike against Iran. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administrations current policy is to "temporarily avoid military action against Iran," instead increasing economic pressure through a US naval blockade and a new round of Treasury sanctions, and pushing as much oil as possible through the Strait of Hormuz into the global energy market. US officials stated that clearing most of the mines from the Strait of Hormuz and the recent increase in oil tankers passing through the southern shipping lanes have "significantly weakened Irans influence in the global energy market." One US official stated, "Iran has lost control of the strait, and now the US controls it." The US believes that the naval blockade is cutting off a vital source of revenue for Iran, and almost no oil tankers have been seen near Kharg Island, Irans main oil export port, in the past two weeks. Rubio stated that the US currently has no plans to resume large-scale military action, but the US retains the option to strike if Iran launches a preemptive attack. Another US official stated that this policy is expected to continue at least until after the midterm elections, at which point new military action may once again become an option.The U.S. Department of Justice stated that Deloitte agreed to pay $21.5 million to resolve allegations of employment discrimination violations.On August 26th, according to South Koreas *Chosun Ilbo*, South Korean DRAM export prices continue to soar, with AI-driven HBM production squeezing the supply of conventional memory. Data shows that from August 1st to 20th, the export price of South Korean DRAM reached $92,183 per kilogram, a 401% year-on-year increase and approximately 12.5 times higher than the low point in January 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts that the DRAM supply gap will widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, and believes that "HBM required for AI servers and high-capacity server DRAM are absorbing limited production capacity, leading to a further tightening of conventional DRAM supply." TrendForce predicts that by the end of next year, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will account for 30% of total DRAM wafer input for HBM production, but HBM will only account for about 13% of actual DRAM bit supply. Memory manufacturers warn that the AI-driven DRAM and NAND supply shortage may continue beyond 2027. SK Hynix stated that from a supply perspective, 2027 could become "the most severe shortage year in the history of the memory industry." Goldman Sachs predicts that the supply shortage may continue until 2028.
