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On April 30th, Madison Faller, Global Investment Strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated that the Bank of Englands decision to hold rates steady today was not surprising, but investors should not confuse consensus with confidence. The market may have misinterpreted the balance of risks. Risk is two-way. However, the speed and volatility of the repricing from rate cuts to rate hikes suggest that investors are overestimating the inflationary risks from the energy shock while underestimating the downside risks to growth. We believe that recent movements in UK government bonds (especially in the short to mid-yield curve) and the pound have been somewhat overdone. We believe investors should position themselves now, rather than chasing a hawkish narrative.On April 30th, David Rees, Global Head of Economics at Schroders, stated that the Bank of Englands decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects its hawkish stance. With overall inflation at 3.3%, wage growth has only gradually slowed, and services inflation remains sticky. The risk lies in the possibility that this shock could become more persistent. A second wave of risk exists later this year if energy shortages translate into food price pressures. Rising fuel and shipping costs, coupled with renewed pressure on inputs such as fertilizers, could lagged behind in pushing up grocery inflation. The risk of persistently high inflation, coupled with speculation about political upheaval following local elections, has pushed UK gilt yields to near 20-year highs. Even so, the threshold for raising interest rates remains high. Given some slack in the labor market and the potential for weaker growth if supply disruptions persist, we doubt the Bank of England will tighten policy unless economic activity remains strong enough to absorb the impact of a rate hike.On April 30th, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chief Economist Peale was the only member to vote against it, but other members hinted they might join him at future meetings. Due to the high unpredictability of the Iranian conflict, the Bank of England abandoned its core inflation forecast, instead setting three scenarios based on different paths of energy prices and the effects of a second round of inflation. All three scenarios indicated a need for an interest rate hike: the most pessimistic scenario predicted oil prices would remain around $130 per barrel—a level already reached before Thursdays rate decision. Under this scenario, models used to illustrate the potential impact of monetary policy pointed to a larger rate hike, between 66 and 151 basis points.Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.Daxin Securities: Raises its target price for Amazon (AMZN.O) from $285 to $310.

Gold varies between $1,700 and $1,600 a week before the Fed meeting

Haiden Holmes

Jul 21, 2022 11:12

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Even without Fed officials continually bombarding the airwaves with suggestions of a rate hike, gold's position above $1,700 remains shaky.


In post-settlement trading on Wednesday, gold futures for August delivery on New York's Comex slipped again below $1,700 an ounce, a week before the central bank's announcement on July interest rates, after finishing the official session just above the crucial psychological support.


August was trading at $1,698.15, down $12.55, or 0.7%, at 2:16 PM ET (18:16 GMT).


Following a daily fall of $10.50, or 0.6%, it closed at $1700.20, putting the session close to the $1700 mark.


Despite Fed officials' normal 10-day speech restriction leading the July 27 rate decision, gold bulls have been unable to propel the market significantly higher from last week's 11-month low of $1,695.


With the exception of the dollar's first rebound in over a week, although to levels well below last week's 20-year highs, no major reason contributed to gold's resumption of its drop on Wednesday.


Phillip Streible, precious metals strategist at Blueline Futures in Chicago, observed, "There was consensus that if the dollar rebounds, gold might fall below $1,700, and I believe that's what you're witnessing."


The Dollar Index, which compares the U.S. dollar to six other major currencies, revisited 2002 highs last week as the US Consumer Price Index for the year to June reached four-decade highs of 9.1%. The ensuing dollar increase prompted money market traders to speculate on an unprecedented 100-basis-point Fed rate hike in July. Since then, the current consensus forecasts a 75-basis-point increase in interest rates.


In addition to the absence of Fed comments, U.S. macroeconomic data have been especially poor this week, providing traders more leeway with regard to direction, fund flows, and trading volumes. Although gold bulls had an equal chance of seizing the initiative, their passivity has seemed to constitute a greater proportion of their bravery.

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