EUR/USD 1.17439
0.032%
Gold 4334.64
-0.084%
Oil 56.299
-0.702%
USD/JPY 155.887
0.128%
GBP/USD 1.33663
-0.061%
GBP/JPY 208.368
0.074%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On December 18th, Futures News reported that an armed attack on a mine in Plateau State, central Nigeria, may have resulted in at least 12 deaths, 5 injuries, and 3 kidnappings. Reuters, citing the head of a Belom youth organization, reported that the attackers, possibly Fulani militants, attacked a mine in Atoso village, Plateau State, on the evening of the 16th. The organization also urged the government to deploy more security forces and enforce the ban on open grazing. Plateau State police have launched an investigation into the incident. In Plateau State, Fulani herders and Belom farmers frequently clash over land control.The head of a Japanese banking lobbying group said that the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates this time.On December 18th, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and simultaneously conducted 100 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities, stated that with the year-end approaching, the PBOCs decision to conduct 14-day reverse repurchase operations at this time is customary. This is mainly due to increased liquidity disturbances caused by factors such as bank assessments, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and residents cash withdrawals around the year-end. The PBOCs 14-day reverse repurchase operations can effectively smooth out fluctuations in the money market and guide market liquidity to a relatively stable and ample state. The market has high expectations that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts early next year. Considering the current economic and financial situation and monetary policy orientation, it is expected that the PBOC may announce an RRR cut in January 2026, with an estimated reduction of 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market. This would support large-scale bank lending at the beginning of next year while also taking into account liquidity arrangements for the Spring Festival, signaling a strengthening of pro-growth policies.December 18th - 1. Due to the previous government shutdown, the CPI report will be incomplete, possibly only reporting November price levels. 2. Limited data reduces reliability, creating uncertainty regarding monthly inflation details. 3. Inflation may slow; tariffs boosted core commodity prices, but seasonal discounts limited prices. 4. Markets may react briefly, but incomplete data limits its lasting impact on Federal Reserve expectations.On December 18th, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen wrote in a report that gold is increasingly becoming a cornerstone asset in a world characterized by fragmentation, fiscal tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty. Golds performance over the past two years reflects more than just a favorable macroeconomic cycle. It signals a deeper transformation in the global financial system, where trust, diversification, and resilience have become as important as yield and growth. Despite the strong momentum, gold is not without risk heading into next year. In the near term, the most tangible risks stem from positioning and capital flows. The strong rally in gold and silver in 2025 means that the upcoming rebalancing of major commodity indices will trigger a significant sell-off in the futures market, a process that could generate significant short-term volatility.

Gold varies between $1,700 and $1,600 a week before the Fed meeting

Haiden Holmes

Jul 21, 2022 11:12

g3.png


Even without Fed officials continually bombarding the airwaves with suggestions of a rate hike, gold's position above $1,700 remains shaky.


In post-settlement trading on Wednesday, gold futures for August delivery on New York's Comex slipped again below $1,700 an ounce, a week before the central bank's announcement on July interest rates, after finishing the official session just above the crucial psychological support.


August was trading at $1,698.15, down $12.55, or 0.7%, at 2:16 PM ET (18:16 GMT).


Following a daily fall of $10.50, or 0.6%, it closed at $1700.20, putting the session close to the $1700 mark.


Despite Fed officials' normal 10-day speech restriction leading the July 27 rate decision, gold bulls have been unable to propel the market significantly higher from last week's 11-month low of $1,695.


With the exception of the dollar's first rebound in over a week, although to levels well below last week's 20-year highs, no major reason contributed to gold's resumption of its drop on Wednesday.


Phillip Streible, precious metals strategist at Blueline Futures in Chicago, observed, "There was consensus that if the dollar rebounds, gold might fall below $1,700, and I believe that's what you're witnessing."


The Dollar Index, which compares the U.S. dollar to six other major currencies, revisited 2002 highs last week as the US Consumer Price Index for the year to June reached four-decade highs of 9.1%. The ensuing dollar increase prompted money market traders to speculate on an unprecedented 100-basis-point Fed rate hike in July. Since then, the current consensus forecasts a 75-basis-point increase in interest rates.


In addition to the absence of Fed comments, U.S. macroeconomic data have been especially poor this week, providing traders more leeway with regard to direction, fund flows, and trading volumes. Although gold bulls had an equal chance of seizing the initiative, their passivity has seemed to constitute a greater proportion of their bravery.

Suggestion