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On March 10th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Matthew Mueller stated that the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike has increased, but officials should not react hastily to the Iran war and its impact. He said, "The probability of the next change in the policy rate is now more inclined towards an upward rather than a downward adjustment. This probability may have increased in the past few weeks." However, he also stated that the ECB should not "make any hasty decisions," adding, "We should first observe whether the current rise in energy prices is merely temporary." As the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, traders have increased their bets on monetary policy tightening. However, after initially pricing in two rate hikes this year, each by 25 basis points, these bets have fallen back to less than one after Trump hinted that the conflict might end soon. ECB Governing Council member Marc-André Simkus also warned against hasty action. He said, "Remain calm and do not overreact, because things are still evolving. If the situation continues, if the conflict spreads, it will not only affect inflation but also have a broader impact on the Middle East and Europe."Saudi Aramco CEO: Of the 7 million barrels per day capacity of the East-West pipeline, nearly 2 million barrels per day will be delivered to domestic refineries in the west, some of which have export capabilities.Volkswagen CEO: We need to work harder; our costs are still too high.Volkswagen CEO: Production costs at the three major German factories have been reduced by 20%.European Council President Costa: The EU calls on all parties to the Middle East war to exercise maximum restraint and return to the negotiating table.

Gold Recovers As Fed Minutes Confirm Forecasts

Charlie Brooks

May 26, 2022 09:36

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Gold recouped some of its losses on Wednesday as minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting indicated that the central bank would maintain its plan to raise interest rates by a half-point at its June and July meetings.


At 4:15 p.m. ET (2015 GMT), spot gold declined 0.7% to $1,853.80 per ounce, after falling 1.3% to $1,844.49 earlier in the session. Gold futures in the U.S. closed down almost 1 percent at $1,846.3.


According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 3-4 May, all participants supported a half-percentage-point rate hike to battle inflation that threatened to surge without central bank intervention.


After the minutes were released, gold reduced losses, but remained down, having been lower for the majority of the day due to a higher dollar.


While the Fed minutes were mostly in line with market expectations, the Fed did indicate that 50 basis point hikes would likely be appropriate for the June and July meetings, according to Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper (OTC:SCBFF). The market will likely continue to focus on inflation data and indications of reducing cost pressures.


Even while gold is commonly viewed as a hedge against inflation, rate rises diminish its attractiveness since they tend to increase bond rates, increasing the opportunity cost of keeping zero-yield metal.


Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has secured critical allies for her proposal to lift rates out of negative territory this summer.


Spot silver lost 0.5% to $21.99 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $948.95 per ounce, while palladium climbed 0.1% to $2,002.22 per ounce.


Analysts at Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) wrote in a note, "Platinum and palladium are being restrained by the continued challenges in the automobile industry, which is dampening demand for these precious metals."