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On July 15th, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the central bank is continuously optimizing and improving the monetary policy framework, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy framework from primarily quantitative control to primarily price-based control, and striving to create a suitable monetary and financial environment. He added that the single indicator of loans can no longer fully reflect the financing situation of the real economy, and suggested that investors consider both loans and bonds together, while also paying closer attention to indicators such as interest rates and financing structure, which comprehensively reflect social financing conditions.On July 15, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the future, monetary and credit policies will shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, and the slowdown and improvement of loan quality may become one of the new normal aspects of macroeconomic operation.On July 15th, ship tracking data showed that two oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil changed their destination signals to Pakistan, a rare move that may indicate these vessels are seeking a relatively safe anchorage to await developments following the reimposition of a US maritime blockade. The tankers "Rani" and "Amil," carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude oil, changed their destination signals to Karachi, Pakistan, on Tuesday. However, it is unlikely that these two tankers will unload their cargo in Pakistan, as doing so could expose Pakistan to violating US sanctions. Kpler data shows that Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude oil for at least 10 years. Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang stated that the ships "may choose to sail closer to Pakistan to avoid US naval vessels and mark Karachi as a transit destination along their route."On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first five months of this year, the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rose to 34.4%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points compared with 2025, and the proportion of cross-border trade settlement in RMB was about 30%.On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, looking ahead, the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate are quite diverse, with both factors driving appreciation and depreciation, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate in both directions.

Gold Price Prediction: XAUUSD bears eye a break beneath crucial support. $1,750

Alina Haynes

Nov 21, 2022 11:41

截屏2022-09-15 下午3.06.36.png 

 

Gold is trading flat at the open and straddles the $1,751 mark, having been lately pressured by the US Dollar, which posted its largest weekly gain in over a month as investors monitored rising bond yields and continued to wager on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path.

 

The US Dollar index DXY, which compares the dollar to a basket of major currencies, increased by 0.03% to 106.93 and has recouped the losses sustained when US inflation data prompted the indicator's steepest weekly drop since March 2020. Friday was the second consecutive day of rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield closing at 3.821%.

 

Last week's earlier-than-anticipated US Retail Sales data put cold water on rumors of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. In addition, hawkish comments from Fed officials such as James Bullard helped dispel rumors that the central bank was nearing a pause, boosting the US dollar and yields. Kit Juckes, an economist at Societe Generale, stated that the process of reducing positions prior to the end of the year may have begun in earnest. He said, "2022 was a near-perfect storm favorable to the U.S. dollar, as it surged due to greater GDP, higher interest rates, favorable terms of trade, and geopolitical concerns. The liquidity situation is deteriorating, and positions are being reduced.

 

In the coming week, the Fed's minutes will give insight on the FOMC's deliberations regarding the anticipated slowdown in rate hikes. "However, officials will also underline that the terminal rate is expected to increase relative to previous projections if the labor market continues to be extremely tight. In terms of the data, experts at TD Securities anticipate a minor decline in the manufacturing PMI in November, with the index remaining above 50.

 

Regarding gold, researchers stated, "money managers continued to grow their net long in gold markets aggressively. The aggressive increase in net length is more likely attributable to weakening downside momentum signals than to a growing belief in the Fed pivot narrative, given that trend following remains the dominant return engine among money managers trading in the yellow metal, as demonstrated by the strong correlation between CFTC money manager positioning and our independent estimates of CTA positioning.

 

"In fact, money managers significantly covered short positions while adding just marginally to their long positions. Given that non-CTA money managers were also likely net short, this lately popular story may have played a part in explaining the magnitude of short covering in this week's data, noted the analysts.

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