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On September 11th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference this morning on the theme of "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting the achievements of health care during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. According to the report, from 2020 to 2024, the number of primary healthcare institutions will increase from 970,000 to 1.04 million, the number of healthcare personnel will increase from 4.34 million to 5.26 million, and the number of medical consultations will increase from 4.1 billion to 5.3 billion.On September 11th, UBS published a report stating that Pop Mart (09992.HK)s share price has fallen approximately 19% from its recent high. The bank attributes this primarily to three factors: profit-taking following its inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, weakening secondary market prices for some products, and a decline in global Google search trends. Its worth noting that the bank has observed similar trends before, but these developments havent altered its positive outlook on Pop Marts fundamentals. UBS believes that Pop Marts current share price correction is creating buying opportunities ahead of anticipated short-term catalysts, including the launch of new Halloween products and its 15th anniversary collection, as well as the crucial Christmas sales season. The bank reiterated its Buy rating on the stock with a target price of HK$432.On September 11th, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that he saw no need to persist with a previously proposed plan to expand the scope of capital gains tax. At a press conference on Thursday, Lee mentioned that the formal proposal, presented at the end of July, would have lowered the capital gains tax threshold from 5 billion won (approximately $720,000) to 1 billion won, raising questions about the governments commitment to reviving the stock market. "Some seem to see this as a litmus test of whether we are truly committed to policies to revive the stock market," Lee said. "If thats the case, I dont think its necessary to persist to the end. I will submit this issue to the National Assembly for review." The original proposal had caused a sharp drop in South Korean stocks and faced strong opposition from retail investors. Following Lees remarks, the Kospi index rose as much as 0.9% during intraday trading on Thursday before retreating. The index had reached a record closing high the previous day, partly due to market expectations that the government would abandon the tax increase proposal.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: A trade agreement with the United States will be signed when there are reasonable results.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: The final conclusion of trade negotiations with the United States will be rational.

Fundamental Gold Prediction: The US Dollar Weighs on Gold. Will U.S. Retail Sales Change Direction?

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:15

Gold prices declined further last week as traders considered the likelihood of an economic recession in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance. This was supported by a number of inflation reports from the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 8.3 percent year-over-year, exceeding analysts' projections of 8.1 percent year-over-year. The producer price index (PPI) for the same period shows that factory-gate prices have risen by 11.0 percent year-over-year.

 

This batch of inflation data contributed to the dollar's appreciation against the majority of its major rivals. A stronger Dollar often works against the price of bullion. Due mostly to Finland's announcement that it plans to strongly pursue NATO membership, the Euro depreciated. This drew a strong response from Russia, which vowed to respond, so reinforcing the risk-averse sentiment that has been permeating the Eurozone.

 

During the upcoming week, traders will closely monitor numerous high-profile data releases that may affect XAU prices. The US retail sales report for April may have the most impact on market mood. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% month-over-month. A stronger-than-expected figure may alleviate some concerns about an impending economic recession. As the US Dollar has been operating as a safe haven for traders, this would likely serve to weaken the currency and may allow gold to climb by reducing risk aversion.

Gold versus US Dollar Chart Weekly

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