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February 15th - According to Iranian media reports on February 14th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated in a media interview that the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy is Irans inherent and inalienable right, and no form of political pressure can undermine this right. Baghae stated that as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran enjoys the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. Iranian President Peshichiyan recently stated that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and is prepared to accept any form of inspection, but will not back down in the face of excessive demands and injustice. The United States has recently continued to pressure Iran, deploying multiple warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, in the Middle East and threatening military intervention. A new round of US-Iran talks will be held on February 17th in Geneva, Switzerland, with Omani representatives coordinating the contacts between the two sides.February 15th - The Bank of England will be closely watching a series of data releases in the coming days. The bank made the difficult decision to keep interest rates unchanged due to concerns that inflation remains too high. British economic observers are facing a busy week: starting with labor market data and consumer price statistics, and ending with public finances and retail sales reports. Wednesdays inflation report will be the focus, especially as it is the last data release before the Bank of Englands next policy meeting in March, and there is significant internal disagreement on its interpretation. Meanwhile, Tuesdays employment report is also an important indicator. Evidence of a continued weakening labor market would be reassuring to officials, as it would suggest easing price pressures.Market news: Australia will invest AU$3.9 billion in a new submarine construction plant.Conflict Status: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian air defense systems destroyed 20 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian locations overnight. 2. Zelensky: More than 6,000 Russian drones attacked Ukraine in January. No power plant in Ukraine escaped Russian attacks and damage. Peace Negotiations: 1. French Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are urging Russia to seriously participate in negotiations with Ukraine. The possibility of future contact with Russia is not ruled out. 2. Zelensky: We hope to hear some compromises from Russia. We hope the United States will continue to participate in the negotiations, and we also hope that Europe will participate more. 3. Zelensky: For Ukraine, setting a date for joining the European Union is crucial; otherwise, Russian President Putin will do everything in his power to prevent this process after the war. 4. Zelensky: The United States keeps demanding concessions from Ukraine; security guarantees should take precedence over a ceasefire agreement; a dignified end to the conflict is crucial for Ukraine. Other Status: 1. Zelensky: Give us a two-month ceasefire period, and we will hold elections. 2. Ukrainian Prime Minister: The International Monetary Fund has eased key conditions for new loans. 3. NATO Secretary General Rutte: Russias oil revenues have fallen by a third, rapidly depleting its sovereign wealth fund. 4. French Foreign Minister Barro: Some G7 members have expressed their willingness to move forward with a ban on maritime transport services for Russian oil. 5. US Secretary of State Rubio: I believe it is impossible for Russia to achieve its initial goals in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict is our inescapable responsibility, and we will not stand idly by.On February 15, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with Norwegian Foreign Minister Ed on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14. Wang Yi stated that China has always viewed China-Norway relations from a strategic and long-term perspective and is willing to maintain close exchanges at all levels, deepen cooperation in various fields, and safeguard the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations. Multilateralism was a consensus reached at the Munich Security Conference. However, multilateralism is not about acting unilaterally, and multipolarity is not dominated by a few major powers. All parties should abide by the purposes of the UN Charter and uphold the international rule of law. President Xi Jinping proposed an equal and orderly multipolar world; equality means that all countries, large and small, have the right to participate, and order means jointly abiding by international law. Both China and Norway support multilateralism and free trade and should further strengthen communication and cooperation. He hoped that Norway would play a constructive role in the stable development of China-EU relations.

Foreign exchange trading reminder on October 4: The US dollar fell for two consecutive days, but the weekly line recorded a rise since the end of August

Oct 26, 2021 10:54

On Friday (October 1), following the rebalancing of capital flows and the stock market rebound on the first day of the quarter, the U.S. dollar fell against G-10 currencies across the board on Friday. Commodity currencies rebounded against the U.S. dollar. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell for the third consecutive day, falling to 1.46%.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.20% to 94.05, due to the combined effects of speculative profit settlement after the sharp rise at the end of the quarter, corporate hedging, and new allocations by large mid- and long-term investors.

The US economic data released on Friday was mixed, adding to the weakness of the US dollar before the weekend. In the United States, consumer spending rose more than expected in August, increasing by 0.8%, but consumption in July was revised down to a decline of 0.1%, instead of the previously announced increase of 0.3%. Inflation remains high, but not much. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes unstable food and energy components, rose 0.3% in August, the same rate as the previous month. Manufacturing data is more optimistic. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced that the manufacturing index rose to 61.1 in August and 59.9 in August.

The higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted traders to speculate on the timing of the code reduction and interest rate hike; two Fed officials reiterated their support for reducing the scale of asset purchases in the near future. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that a more hawkish stance seemed to be the key factor that pushed the dollar higher at the end of September. However, the current focus is on fiscal policy, although investors seem to have seen it through, because many people believe that US debt default is unthinkable.

The euro is the worst among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.14% against the US dollar to 1.1596, after falling for five consecutive days; this week it fell by about 1.06%, the largest percentage drop since mid-June.

The dollar fell 0.22% to 111.05 against the yen, and the risk reversal expanded, indicating that the demand for yen call options was higher; during the New York session, the decline of the dollar against the yen was limited due to stock market rises and hedging activities.

The Norwegian Krone, the New Zealand dollar and the British pound led the gains after a sharp decline in the third quarter; Neil Jones, head of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho Bank’s financial institutions, said that these currencies were all sold off at the end of the last quarter. The quarter is over and we are starting again.

The British pound rose 0.53% to 1.3546 against the US dollar; corporate buying and medium- and long-term large-scale investor buys boosted the pound earlier, speculative accounts tried to do more pound against the euro; the euro fell 0.4% against the pound for the second day in a row Go lower. Due to increasingly serious supply chain problems, the pound's performance in the last quarter was poor, falling by 2.5% and recording its worst weekly performance in more than a month.

The Australian dollar rose 0.43% against the US dollar to 0.7258, and fell 3.6% in the third quarter. It was the worst performance among the Group of Ten currencies against the US dollar due to the sharp drop in the price of Australia’s largest export commodity, iron ore. The Norwegian Krone rose 1.5% against the U.S. dollar; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.67% against the U.S. dollar.

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OPEC+ holds the 21st Ministerial Conference

Summary of Institutional Views


Financial website Fxstreet: The U.S. dollar is overbought, showing signs of exhaustion of the rally


Market risk aversion once again dominated the financial market this week, with the US dollar and gold prices rising, but the US dollar is already overbought against most major currencies, and the possibility of a corrective decline is higher. The US gross domestic product in the second quarter was revised up to 6.7% from the previous quarter, slightly better than expected. But until the non-agricultural employment report is released next week, the employment data has been disappointing. Earlier, the euro against the U.S. dollar EUR/USD fell to a new low of 1.1562 in 2021, and the British pound against the U.S. dollar GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.3516. Commodity-related currencies rebounded well, but from a broader perspective, these gains appear to be in the consolidation phase.

United Overseas Bank: EUR/USD is expected to find solid support near 1.1530


Last trading day we emphasized that the euro may weaken further, the next support level is 1.1565, followed by the key level of 1.1530. The euro fell to 1.1561 yesterday and then closed at 1.1581. The downward momentum of Europe and the United States has slowed down. Although the euro may fall further, the main and strong support level of 1.1530 may not be easily broken. In general, as long as the strong resistance level of 1.1655 is not broken, the current downside risks will not change.

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