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On May 22, the National Data Development Research Institute, under the National Data Administration, released a report titled "Research on the Development Characteristics and Paths of Commercial Data Service Enterprises." The report points out that while domestic commercial data service enterprises have formed a preliminary industrial ecosystem, they still have shortcomings in areas such as capitalization, global service capabilities, and competitiveness in high-end markets. There is an urgent need to increase capital market support to help the industry achieve high-quality development. To this end, the National Data Development Research Institute proposes three suggestions: First, strengthen government guidance, improve the public data supply guarantee system, refine the revenue distribution mechanism, and stimulate the enthusiasm of all parties in supplying and using data; second, promote the industrys own quality and efficiency improvement, guiding enterprises to abandon low-end homogeneous competition and focus on improving professional capabilities and service quality; third, increase capital market support, improve the valuation and evaluation mechanism for data enterprises, and facilitate financing channels to provide sufficient capital support for high-quality enterprises R&D innovation, scale expansion, and overseas expansion.On May 22, the Ministry of Public Security announced plans to revise the "Rules for Electronic Data Collection in Criminal Cases Handled by Public Security Organs," and has drafted the "Rules for Electronic Data Collection by Public Security Organs (Draft for Public Comment)," soliciting public opinions. The draft clarifies that in electronic data collection, if it is necessary to input the account password of a smart terminal or other device related to the case, the electronic data holder should generally provide the account password first. If the holder does not provide the password, the process should be approved by the head of a public security organ at the county level or above, and appropriate measures can be taken to obtain the account password after clearly informing the electronic data holder or having a witness present.On May 22, the Ministry of Transport held a Party Group meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to stay aligned with the strategic goals of building a science and technology powerhouse and a transportation powerhouse by 2035. It stressed accelerating the construction of an intelligent, integrated, and three-dimensional transportation network; deepening the large-scale innovative application of artificial intelligence; overcoming key core technologies; completing a number of major innovation projects; building a group of strategic scientific and technological forces; and accelerating the integration, safety improvement, digitalization, and green transformation of transportation to provide strong scientific and technological support for improving a modern, comprehensive transportation system.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The crisis currently facing our region and the world stems directly from the United States illegal and capricious withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018.May 22 – As the price shock triggered by the Iran war begins to spread from energy costs to a wider range of sectors, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and postponed the timeline for the next Federal Reserve rate cut. They expect the core PCE index to rise higher than previously anticipated, with both inflation indicators remaining above 3% by the end of the year. Economists are evenly divided on whether the Fed will cut rates in December, whereas a previous survey predicted an October cut. Luke Tilly, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Corp., said this feels familiar; the Fed and markets are worried that soaring energy prices will trigger inflation, just as they worried about tariffs triggering inflation last year. Given already weak consumer spending, people are more likely to offset higher gas prices by cutting spending on other items. The survey shows that economists still believe U.S. consumer spending and GDP will grow by about 2% this year, roughly in line with previous forecasts, with the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling to 25%. In addition, economists have slightly raised their forecasts for job growth in the U.S. this year, but still expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

Foreign exchange trading reminder on October 12: Safe-haven buying pushes the dollar up, and the yen hits a three-year low

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Monday (October 11), the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 94.36, not far from the one-year high of 94.50 hit earlier this month. Driven by the rebound in global demand, oil prices rose to multi-year highs on Monday, and concerns that price increases may exacerbate the backlog of global supply chains caused Wall Street to give back early gains. Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at foreign exchange broker Oanda, said that risk aversion is playing a role to some extent. We will not get any answers to the global energy crisis or inflationary pressures in the short term. These risks may make many investors in the short term. Nei continues to focus on hedging.

The US fixed-income market was closed for a holiday on Monday, but the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit a four-month high of 1.617% last Friday, despite previous data showing that the number of new jobs in the US in September was the smallest in nine months. As expected. However, the August data was revised upwards and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest in 18 months. This shows that concerns about labor shortages are still reasonable. This makes people continue to worry about inflation and gives the Fed a reason to shrink the emergency that was implemented this year. Incentive measures.

The euro to dollar fell 0.15% to $1.1552, an intraday gain of 0.2%; traders said that selling near 1.1600 is considered to limit the near-term trend.

The yen performed the worst against the dollar among G-10 currencies; the dollar rose 1% to 113.41 yen against the yen, driven by stop losses and crosses; the euro rose 1.1% against the yen to a four-month high of 131.23 The implied volatility of the yen has generally risen, jumping to 6.625% in one-year terms, the highest level since May.

Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of foreign exchange strategy at the Bank of Spain (BBVA), said that as the yields of Japanese government government bonds are firmly anchored and the Bank of Japan maintains its policy unchanged, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon announce a reduction in quantitative easing should push up U.S. debt. Yields are expected to push the USD/JPY into a higher range.

The main risk of USD/JPY this week comes from US data. The US will announce consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales data. Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management, said that investors need to be a little more careful.

The Australian dollar hit its highest level against the US dollar since September 14 and rose 0.57% late in the session to trade at US$0.7351, thanks to the firming of commodity prices and the partial restart of Australia’s largest city, Sydney.

Concerns about inflation are not limited to the United States. Supply disruptions and rising commodity prices affect many countries. The pound rose for a while in early trading in London, due to growing expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, due to energy price concerns, it later gave up the gains. New York fell 0.15% to $1.3595 at the end of the session.

The Canadian market was closed for a holiday, but the Canadian dollar hit a two-month high of 1.24465 due to unexpectedly strong Canadian non-agricultural employment data released last Friday and high oil prices.

Preview Tuesday


timeareaindexThe former valuePredictive value
14:00U.KILO unemployment rate for three months in August (%)4.64.5
14:00U.KSeptember unemployment rate (%)5.4
16:00ChinaSocial financing scale in September-single month (100 million yuan) (10/12-10/15)2960031000
16:00ChinaAnnual rate of M2 money supply in September (%) (10/12-10/15)8.28.2
17:00GermanyOctober ZEW Economic Sentiment Index26.523.5
17:00EurozoneOctober ZEW Economic Sentiment Index31.1
22:00AmericaJob vacancies at JOLTs in August (10,000)1093.41093.8


09:00 The Bank of Korea announces interest rate decision
20:30 European Central Bank Chief Economist Lien delivered a speech
23:15 Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech at the Annual Meeting of the International Finance Association 00:30 AM 2021 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on inflation

Summary of Institutional Views


The U.S. dollar against the yen hit a new high in the past three years, and Mizuho Bank analysts said it can be attributed to "triple factors"


The U.S. dollar against the yen continued to rise on Monday, once rising by more than 1%, reaching a maximum of 113.41, the highest level since December 2018. The yen led the decline in the G-10 currency against the U.S. dollar, and it was also the worst-performing currency in the past month.

Neil Jones, head of foreign exchange sales at the financial institution of Mizuho Bank, said that the weakening of the yen was affected by a "triple factor impact." Businessmen want to buy more U.S. dollars for the same amount of raw materials; three recent domestic political changes indicate that capital gains tax may be temporarily improbable, and stimulate demand for the Japanese stock market."

Commerzbank: Once inflation in the euro zone eases, the Swiss franc may fall against the euro


With the easing of price pressures in the euro zone, the Swiss franc may depreciate moderately against the euro next year. Currency analysts said: “The rising inflation rate in the euro zone is currently weighing on the euro because the European Central Bank is not expected to respond adequately to high inflation.” The euro will remain weak for the time being, but as inflation in the euro zone slows next year, It should be stronger. On the other hand, factors unique to Switzerland are unlikely to have a significant impact on the exchange rate level of the euro against the Swiss franc. "Therefore, it is expected that by December 2022, the Euro/Swiss franc pair will rise to 1.12, which is currently flat at 1.0716.

Societe Generale: The Bank of England’s policy comments herald the approach of raising interest rates


Societe Generale analyst Brian Hilliard said that the comments made by the Governor of the Bank of England Bailey and the member of the Bank of England Sanders over the weekend emphasized the risk of rising inflation and “added fire” to the expectation of this year's interest rate hikes set by the money market. However, Hilliard believes that the market’s forecast for a November rate hike is still too early, because the government and the market seem to have overlooked the potential damage to economic activity caused by the energy situation. After the release of employment and GDP data this week, Societe Generale is expected to reassess its current interest rate hike expectations for the Bank of England, that is, it will not raise interest rates until August 22 next year, because it seems "increasingly too cautious." ".

HSBC: New Zealand dollar expected to weaken gradually in the next twelve months


HSBC expects that the New Zealand Fed’s next interest rate hike of 25 basis points will be carried out in November and will further raise interest rates next year. In addition, it is still expected that the New Zealand dollar will weaken slightly against the US dollar in the next 12 months. The core assumption is that they will be in New Zealand in 2021. Increased its cash rate to 0.75% in November, and will raise interest rates further next year, and increase the interest rate to 1.50% by the end of 2022. However, the delta mutant virus and the transition to "surviving with the virus" will still affect New Zealand's domestic growth. Posing obvious near-term downside risks, the New Zealand dollar is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range against the US dollar in the near future, although it will weaken slightly in the next twelve months.