Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD bulls return, market remains tense

According to yesterday's analysis, Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls must commit at critical trendline support, the Gold price has found demand at the aforementioned support region and has moved back in line with the larger bullish trend. On Friday, ahead of the Christmas holidays and long weekend, the price of gold inched up, aided by Friday's falling inflation statistics.

US consumer spending rose 0.1% in November after rising 0.4% in October, indicating that inflation is moderating, but not enough for markets to anticipate a policy shift from the Federal Reserve or a halt in their rate-hike trajectory. The index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased by 0.5 percentage points from October to 5.5% annually. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the index increased on a monthly and annual basis by 0.2% and 4.7%, respectively, in accordance with expectations. The increased revision of October PCE inflation data is terrible news for the gold market.

Thursday's US Gross Domestic Product and Jobless Claims figures revealed that the nation's economy returned quicker than previously predicted and that the labor market remains extremely tight. Overall, the plethora of data offers little to alter the belief that the Fed will stick to its plan to combat inflation in 2023. The non-yielding, non-interest-bearing asset is on course for a second consecutive year fall as a result of these rate hikes enacted to curb price pressure.

According to Brown Brothers Harriman analysts, the markets continue to remain skeptical of the Fed. "After reaching a high of 5.5% following the most recent FOMC meeting, the terminal rate as observed on the swaps market has fallen down to approximately 5%," analysts explained. "Similarly, WIRP predicts a 50 bp increase on February 1 is priced in at only 33%, followed by a final 25 bp increase on March 22. We cannot see why the markets continue to oppose the Federal Reserve. With the exception of a few communications blunders here and there, chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have been firm about the need to raise interest rates for an extended period of time. Recent US data indicate that the labor market remains robust and that the Fed must take additional action.