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The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that net gold and foreign exchange reserves in December totaled $63.447 billion (a 6.3% increase month-on-month).On January 14th, it was learned from the China Development Bank (CDB) that in 2025, CDB will provide over RMB 290 billion equivalent in funding to support high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation. Deepening multilateral and bilateral financial cooperation, CDB announced in November 2025 the establishment of a RMB 30 billion special loan program for China-Europe freight trains, focusing on supporting the construction of China-Europe freight train corridors, ports, hubs, supporting facilities, and related enterprise operations. CDBs subsidiary, the China-Africa Development Fund, has increased its direct investment support for projects with high development potential, strong driving force, and good comprehensive effects. In 2025, it made an additional RMB 8.39 billion equivalent in investment in Africa, driving domestic enterprises to invest RMB 20.39 billion equivalent in Africa, both record highs, primarily supporting infrastructure and industrial cooperation.The most active Japanese rubber futures contract rose 2.00% on the day, currently trading at 356.40 yen per kilogram.On January 14th, Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that my countrys goods trade has been continuously optimized and upgraded. Over the past five years, the import and export of high-tech products has grown at an average annual rate of 7.9%, with the year-on-year growth rate further accelerating to 11.4% in 2025, contributing nearly 60% to the overall foreign trade growth. The export scale of the "new three" products—electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries—is expected to reach nearly 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, a 3.5-fold increase compared to 2020. New business formats and models are flourishing. According to preliminary statistics from customs, my countrys cross-border e-commerce imports and exports are expected to reach 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a 69.7% increase compared to 2020.On January 14th, Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that by 2025, my country will have trade relations with 249 countries and regions worldwide. Among them, 14 countries and regions will have trade exceeding one trillion, 62 exceeding one hundred billion, and 137 exceeding ten billion yuan, representing increases of 2, 6, and 10 respectively compared to 2024. Across the five continents, my countrys imports and exports with at least 60% of the countries and regions on each continent will see growth. Looking at individual economies, by 2025, my countrys top ten trading partners will account for 47.7% of my countrys total foreign trade, a decrease of two percentage points compared to 2024, indicating a slight decrease in concentration and a more balanced distribution.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD bulls require confirmation from $1,902 and US inflation projections

Daniel Rogers

Jan 13, 2023 14:48

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is stable at $1,900 as bulls take a breather near the eight-month high early Friday morning, following the US inflation-inspired advance. In doing so, gold also reflects the market's skepticism ahead of additional data on US inflation conditions and consumer morale. In addition, recent concerns regarding US-China relations present additional obstacles for XAU/USD buyers.

 

According to anonymous sources cited by Reuters, the White House will discuss the recent ban on exports of chip-making gear to China during planned trips with Japanese and Dutch officials. The story also mentions that the White House Officials will not result in "immediate" commitments from China and Russia to implement comparable restrictions. The news renews the geopolitical conflict between the United States and China and supports the price of gold.

 

In a similar vein, the atmosphere before to China's trade data for December and the initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for January will be crucial for short-term direction. In addition, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be crucial.

 

Even though Wall Street closed with gains, S&P 500 Futures remain hesitant and 10-year US Treasury rates lick their wounds near 3.46 percent as of press time.

 

On Thursday, the US CPI matched predictions for December at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% before. Moreover, CPI excluding food and energy confirmed the market consensus of 5.7% YoY, compared to previous readings of 6.0%. Notable is the fact that the CPI MoM marked its first negative result since June 2020 with a -0.1% figure for the specified month, compared to the 0.0% anticipated and 0.1% prior figure.

 

Following the release of the US CPI, the Fed Fund Futures pegged to the policy rate implied a nearly 100 percent possibility of a 0.25 basis point (bps) Fed rate hike in February, but the odds favoring a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike in the same month fell to 8.0%.

 

Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, was the first to signal easy rate hikes after the US CPI, which weighed on the US Dollar. Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated in the same vein that it "makes sense" for the Fed to steer more cautiously in its efforts to reduce inflation. However, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, stated that the most likely scenario is for inflation to remain above 2%, therefore the policy rate will need to be elevated for a longer period of time.

 

In the future, expected growth in China's trade reports for December should benefit gold purchasers, while expected improvement in US consumer confidence measures could test the XAU/upward USD's potential. Notably, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be essential to monitor.


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