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December 21 - According to a report released by the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, a 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of North Maluku province, Indonesia, at 19:21 local time on December 21. The epicenter was located at 1.47 degrees north latitude and 126.34 degrees east longitude, with a focal depth of 27 kilometers.December 21 - On December 21, MiniMax, a general artificial intelligence company, published its post-hearing information set prospectus for the first time.On December 21, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov told the media that the proposal to hold trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine has not yet been put on the agenda or discussed. He also pointed out that the modifications proposed by Ukraine and Europe to the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" are not conducive to advancing the agreement. Ushakov confirmed that Russias Special Representative for Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation, Dmitriev, is currently in Miami holding talks with the US. He revealed that Dmitriev will report on the results of the talks with the US after returning to Moscow. On the same day, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that President Putin has no plans to speak with US President Trump before the end of the year, but arranging a call would be easy.On December 21st, according to Japanese sources, during a debate program, Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Partys (LDP) Security Research Council, proposed that it is necessary to discuss the definition of the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles." He discussed Japans current reliance on the US "nuclear umbrella," stating, "This is one of the issues that should be discussed." Onodera said the LDP plans to submit a related motion to the Cabinet in February next year to promote discussion in the Diet. The "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" refer to not possessing, manufacturing, or introducing nuclear weapons. Recently, several political parties, politicians, and numerous civic organizations in Japan have called for adherence to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" to avoid a repeat of the tragedy of war.Kremlin: The idea of a trilateral meeting between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine has not yet been discussed.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD to fall to $25.00 as supply concerns subside and risk aversion increases

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:46

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During the early hours of Thursday, the price of silver (XAG / USD) falls to $25.20, a new intraday low. In doing so, the precious metal records its first daily loss in three days, as concerns of a supply crisis subside and a risk-averse mood prevails.

 

Wednesday, Reuters cited the Silver Institute's annual prognosis report, which stated that global silver demand increased by 18% to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces last year, resulting in a massive supply deficit. According to the report, "The Silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, the institute said in its most recent World Silver Survey, calling this 'possibly the largest deficit on record'."

 

On the other hand, higher inflation indicators from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States, along with hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Federal Reserve (Fed), increase the likelihood of rate increases and dampen investor sentiment. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the Fed's most recent policy advocates. In May, he voiced support for an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points and said, "We will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability." Before him, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, highlighted the strength of the credit market as one of the most important catalysts to monitor prior to the next Fed monetary policy meeting.

 

With this, market participants increase their wagers on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May to at least 85 percent and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2023.

 

It should be noted that the UK's allegations of China's hidden motive to clamp down on Western infrastructure and the US House China Committee's discussion on the Taiwan invasion scenario rekindle the West vs. China conflict narrative and impact on sentiment. On the same line are the concerns surrounding the probable drag on the US debt ceiling decision as a result of US President Joe Biden's reluctance to raise debt limits.

 

In addition, Reuters reported that US consumers are falling behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy weakens, which also puts pressure on the XAG/USD exchange rate.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures have recorded their first daily loss in four days, falling 0.25 percent intraday to 4,168 as of press time. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields hover around 3.60 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively, after reaching new monthly highs the day before. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.000 after rectifying its adverse bias from the previous day.

 

Considering the future, the recent emphasis on qualitative news highlights them as the most important risk indicator. Nonetheless, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales should be monitored for fresh impulses.


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