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On April 29th, Mike Sanders, Head of Fixed Income at Madison Investments, stated in a report that the market will be focused on how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell describes the committees consensus view on recent inflation and the future policy path, especially as Powells term as chairman is drawing to a close. "With rising oil prices potentially leading to persistently high inflation, investors will want to know as much as possible about the committees view on the balance of risks," he said. He added that the labor market is "okay, but not great," but rate cuts in a high-inflation environment would have a significant impact on the yield curve and the overall economy, while a near-term rate hike is not expected.Geely Automobile (00175.HK) shares rose more than 4% in the afternoon. The company reported a first-quarter profit attributable to owners of the parent company of RMB 4.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27%.Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) rose more than 2% in the afternoon. The company’s profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter was HK$5.188 billion, up 27% year-on-year.UBS (UBS.N): Expectations of a diplomatic solution in the Middle East have kept markets resilient.On April 29th, a thematic exchange activity on data development theory and practice research, hosted by the National Data Development Research Institute, was held in Fuzhou on April 28th. During the event, the "Computing-Power Collaborative Technology and Industry Integration Innovation Consortium" was established. Yuan Jun, Vice President of the National Data Development Research Institute, stated that the current collaborative development of computing and power faces a synergistic dilemma involving three objectives: security, green development, and economic efficiency—the "impossible triangle" challenge. The rapid growth in computing power demand is mismatched with the long construction cycle of energy facilities, and the "electricity waiting for computing" approach easily leads to over-allocation and resource waste. A nationwide coordinated approach is needed, integrating computing power and power grid planning into a unified spatial system, with appropriate forward-looking and dynamic adaptation to AI development.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD to fall to $25.00 as supply concerns subside and risk aversion increases

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:46

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During the early hours of Thursday, the price of silver (XAG / USD) falls to $25.20, a new intraday low. In doing so, the precious metal records its first daily loss in three days, as concerns of a supply crisis subside and a risk-averse mood prevails.

 

Wednesday, Reuters cited the Silver Institute's annual prognosis report, which stated that global silver demand increased by 18% to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces last year, resulting in a massive supply deficit. According to the report, "The Silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, the institute said in its most recent World Silver Survey, calling this 'possibly the largest deficit on record'."

 

On the other hand, higher inflation indicators from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States, along with hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Federal Reserve (Fed), increase the likelihood of rate increases and dampen investor sentiment. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the Fed's most recent policy advocates. In May, he voiced support for an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points and said, "We will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability." Before him, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, highlighted the strength of the credit market as one of the most important catalysts to monitor prior to the next Fed monetary policy meeting.

 

With this, market participants increase their wagers on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May to at least 85 percent and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2023.

 

It should be noted that the UK's allegations of China's hidden motive to clamp down on Western infrastructure and the US House China Committee's discussion on the Taiwan invasion scenario rekindle the West vs. China conflict narrative and impact on sentiment. On the same line are the concerns surrounding the probable drag on the US debt ceiling decision as a result of US President Joe Biden's reluctance to raise debt limits.

 

In addition, Reuters reported that US consumers are falling behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy weakens, which also puts pressure on the XAG/USD exchange rate.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures have recorded their first daily loss in four days, falling 0.25 percent intraday to 4,168 as of press time. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields hover around 3.60 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively, after reaching new monthly highs the day before. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.000 after rectifying its adverse bias from the previous day.

 

Considering the future, the recent emphasis on qualitative news highlights them as the most important risk indicator. Nonetheless, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales should be monitored for fresh impulses.


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