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August 15th - According to Iranian media Fars News, Iran and Tajikistan reached an agreement on long-term energy cooperation in the latest round of oil negotiations. The agreement mainly includes two aspects: Iran exporting petroleum products to Tajikistan, and supplying crude oil to Tajik refineries.The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the UAE emphasizes the need to ensure Irans full commitment to cease all hostile actions and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz completely and unconditionally.The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Irans attacks pose a direct threat to regional and public stability, as well as global energy security.The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps use of commercial navigation as a tool for pressure or economic extortion constitutes piracy in the Strait of Hormuz.On August 15th, regarding the issue of non-Shanghai residents purchasing homes for replacement purposes, a staff member at the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center hotline stated that no new policies have been introduced. According to the hotline staff, non-Shanghai resident families who sell their only property can exchange it for one more home within the city, provided the ownership remains the same before and after. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since May 28, 2024. For non-Shanghai resident families or single adults selling some of their properties (i.e., owning two or more properties), when purchasing a new home, the number and location of the new home must match the previously sold property—if a property is sold outside the outer ring road, it can only be purchased outside the outer ring road; if a property is sold within the outer ring road, it can only be purchased within the outer ring road. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since February 26, 2026. Regarding home purchases and exchanges by foreign individuals, hotline staff stated that foreign individuals who sell all their properties in Shanghai can exchange them for and purchase one additional home in the city without submitting a foreigners residence permit (work category), a Shanghai employment contract valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase, or proof of social security and individual income tax payments valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase. However, they still need to sign a commitment letter for self-occupancy of the property. This policy will take effect on July 29, 2026.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD to fall to $25.00 as supply concerns subside and risk aversion increases

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:46

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During the early hours of Thursday, the price of silver (XAG / USD) falls to $25.20, a new intraday low. In doing so, the precious metal records its first daily loss in three days, as concerns of a supply crisis subside and a risk-averse mood prevails.

 

Wednesday, Reuters cited the Silver Institute's annual prognosis report, which stated that global silver demand increased by 18% to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces last year, resulting in a massive supply deficit. According to the report, "The Silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, the institute said in its most recent World Silver Survey, calling this 'possibly the largest deficit on record'."

 

On the other hand, higher inflation indicators from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States, along with hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Federal Reserve (Fed), increase the likelihood of rate increases and dampen investor sentiment. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the Fed's most recent policy advocates. In May, he voiced support for an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points and said, "We will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability." Before him, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, highlighted the strength of the credit market as one of the most important catalysts to monitor prior to the next Fed monetary policy meeting.

 

With this, market participants increase their wagers on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May to at least 85 percent and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2023.

 

It should be noted that the UK's allegations of China's hidden motive to clamp down on Western infrastructure and the US House China Committee's discussion on the Taiwan invasion scenario rekindle the West vs. China conflict narrative and impact on sentiment. On the same line are the concerns surrounding the probable drag on the US debt ceiling decision as a result of US President Joe Biden's reluctance to raise debt limits.

 

In addition, Reuters reported that US consumers are falling behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy weakens, which also puts pressure on the XAG/USD exchange rate.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures have recorded their first daily loss in four days, falling 0.25 percent intraday to 4,168 as of press time. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields hover around 3.60 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively, after reaching new monthly highs the day before. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.000 after rectifying its adverse bias from the previous day.

 

Considering the future, the recent emphasis on qualitative news highlights them as the most important risk indicator. Nonetheless, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales should be monitored for fresh impulses.


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