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On May 6, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said: "Gold prices started the week with a strong rise as investors returned to safe-haven assets to hedge portfolio volatility caused by tariff concerns reignited by US President Donald Trump. Any dovish signal from the Federal Reserve is likely to provide further support for gold and strengthen its overall upward momentum."On May 6, Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that Standard Chartered Group (02888.HK)s first quarter profit exceeded expectations by 17%; net interest income (NII) was in line with expectations; pre-tax profit was 5% higher than market expectations; credit impairment was 7% lower than market forecasts; pre-tax profit (PBT) was 10% higher than market forecasts; basic return rate (ROTE) reached 16.4%, 300 basis points higher than market forecasts; core tier 1 capital ratio (CET1%) was in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs raised Standard Chartereds earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 2025 by 6%; the forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 were raised by 2%, 2% and 1% respectively, and the target price for H shares was set at HK$111, with a neutral rating.Market news: The United States seeks to force the sale of Googles advertising technology products.On May 6, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee met with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (6th), and said that he will visit two Middle Eastern countries, Qatar and Kuwait, on May 10. John Lee said that this is his second visit to Middle Eastern countries since he took office. During this visit, he will meet with government representatives from Qatar and Kuwait to strengthen the cooperation model between the two sides and bring more people-to-people exchanges and contacts. For the first time, he will lead more than 50 business people to participate, including more than 30 Hong Kong business people and more than 20 mainland entrepreneurs.On May 6, Anders Persson, chief investment officer and global fixed income director at Nuveen in North Carolina, said, "We are currently neutral on U.S. Treasuries and prefer the front end of the yield curve because I expect this part to be relatively stable for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the face of policy uncertainty and unclear prospects, we are not willing to make large bets."

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD surpasses $1,650 on falling wedge breakthrough; US PCE inflation observed

Daniel Rogers

Sep 30, 2022 10:46

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is anticipating its first weekly increase in three weeks as metal investors push $1,663 following the confirmation of the falling wedge bullish chart pattern the day before. In doing so, gold celebrates a weaker U.S. dollar but disregards the market's dismal conditions.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recorded another negative day, reestablishing the weekly low around 111.95. After the latest readings of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter confirmed the early projections of -0.6%, the greenback fell against the six major currencies.

 

It should be noted that the firmer printing of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 193K for the week ending September 24 compared to 209K before (updated from 213K) and the market's forecast of 215K, may have also weighed on the DXY. The US Initial Claims for Unemployment fell to their lowest level since April.

 

While respecting the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the decline in weekly Initial Jobless Claims and stated, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated on Thursday that they are not yet in a position to consider stopping interest rate hikes.

 

In addition to the Fed's aggressive rhetoric, anxieties originating from the United Kingdom, Russia, and China also test sentiment and the XAU/USD bulls, but they were unable to halt the price decline.

 

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November," said Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. On the other hand, record high German inflation, Russia's willingness to annex more parts of Ukraine, and the chatter over China's inability to tame its recession woes were also challenging the risk appetite.

 

As a result of these bets, Wall Street benchmarks reversed all Wednesday gains, while Treasury yields recovered.

 

Traders will pay special attention to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, which is anticipated to increase 4.7% year-over-year compared to the prior reading of 4.4%. If the actual outcome is stronger than anticipated, the XAU/USD exchange rate may struggle to rise.

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