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Conflict Updates: 1. Riyadh, the Saudi capital, was hit by an airstrike; a Saudi Aramco fuel storage tank near Riyadh airport caught fire. 2. The Houthi rebels claimed Saudi Arabia launched 300 airstrikes this week. 3. The son of the Director-General of the Gaza Ministry of Health was killed by Israeli artillery fire. 4. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) on the 19th, an explosion occurred on the 18th at a Syrian transitional government army outpost in Deir ez-Zor province in eastern Syria, killing 11 personnel from the transitional governments Ministry of Defense. 5. The Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Yanbu. 6. Saudi Arabia claimed its air defense system successfully shot down a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh. Other Updates: 1. Iran stated it has conveyed three conditions for negotiations to Washington through Qatar and is awaiting Trumps decision. 2. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae stated that the Pakistani Interior Ministers visit will focus on bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan and does not involve conveying any specific information regarding mediation. 3. Saudi Arabia is running out of interceptor missiles and urgently requests assistance. 4. Foreign media: Saudi Arabia makes a rare request for support to Israel. 5. Italy reportedly plans to send up to four ships to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 6. Iranian sources: The US says it is ready to negotiate with Iran. 7. Iranian Foreign Minister speaks with Pakistani Foreign Minister to discuss regional developments. 8. Israeli media: Trump is not expected to meet with Netanyahu during next weeks UN General Assembly. 9. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Participation in the UN General Assembly is Irans legitimate right, not a "favor" from other countries. 10. Turkish Foreign Minister: Will not accept Saudi Arabia being drawn into the US-Iran conflict. 11. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran has presented the US government with seven conditions necessary to initiate any negotiations. 12. US Central Command Commander: The US has assisted in the passage of over 1 billion barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two months. Mines in the main navigation channels of the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared.The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it conducted 32 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with both the bid and winning bids amounting to 32 billion yuan. The interest rate for the operation was 1.40%.On September 20th, according to the "Announcement on Launching a Series of Special Actions for Personal Information Protection in 2026" jointly issued by the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Public Security, and based on the "Cybersecurity Law," "Personal Information Protection Law," "Regulations on the Management of Network Data Security," and "Methods for Identifying Illegal and Irregular Collection and Use of Personal Information by Apps," the Cyberspace Administration of China organized an inspection of the collection and use of personal information by apps (including mini-programs). The following issues are hereby reported: 1. Six apps, including FlowFit and Scooter Memorization, failed to disclose their rules for collecting and using personal information. 2. Four apps, including iNAPCare and Chinese-English Translator, forcibly or frequently requested unnecessary permissions. 3. Nine apps, including GPS Acreage Meter and ROI Calculator, failed to fully and accurately list the personal information collected and used. 4. Eleven apps, including Hongjuan Reading and Daochen Smart Sports, failed to provide an effective account cancellation function. The operators of the relevant apps should complete rectification within 15 working days from the date of this announcement and report the rectification status to our office. Our office will conduct verification in conjunction with relevant departments and, based on the rectification status, take appropriate action and impose penalties in accordance with laws and regulations.On September 20, the Peoples Bank of China announced that it would keep the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively.On September 20, the U.S. embassies in Bahrain, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Iraq issued security alerts stating that given the tense situation in the Middle East, the current security environment remains complex, with unforeseen escalation risks. U.S. citizens currently in the Middle East should remain highly vigilant and be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions. U.S. citizens outside the Middle East should seriously reconsider their travel plans to or transit through the region. The security alerts all mention the recent conflict between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, stating that this military conflict has the potential to escalate rapidly, and U.S. citizens traveling to or from the region should closely monitor the latest information regarding airport and airline operations.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD surpasses $1,650 on falling wedge breakthrough; US PCE inflation observed

Daniel Rogers

Sep 30, 2022 10:46

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is anticipating its first weekly increase in three weeks as metal investors push $1,663 following the confirmation of the falling wedge bullish chart pattern the day before. In doing so, gold celebrates a weaker U.S. dollar but disregards the market's dismal conditions.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recorded another negative day, reestablishing the weekly low around 111.95. After the latest readings of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter confirmed the early projections of -0.6%, the greenback fell against the six major currencies.

 

It should be noted that the firmer printing of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 193K for the week ending September 24 compared to 209K before (updated from 213K) and the market's forecast of 215K, may have also weighed on the DXY. The US Initial Claims for Unemployment fell to their lowest level since April.

 

While respecting the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the decline in weekly Initial Jobless Claims and stated, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated on Thursday that they are not yet in a position to consider stopping interest rate hikes.

 

In addition to the Fed's aggressive rhetoric, anxieties originating from the United Kingdom, Russia, and China also test sentiment and the XAU/USD bulls, but they were unable to halt the price decline.

 

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November," said Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. On the other hand, record high German inflation, Russia's willingness to annex more parts of Ukraine, and the chatter over China's inability to tame its recession woes were also challenging the risk appetite.

 

As a result of these bets, Wall Street benchmarks reversed all Wednesday gains, while Treasury yields recovered.

 

Traders will pay special attention to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, which is anticipated to increase 4.7% year-over-year compared to the prior reading of 4.4%. If the actual outcome is stronger than anticipated, the XAU/USD exchange rate may struggle to rise.

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