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On August 24th, Derek Halpenny, a strategist at MUFG, stated in a report that the dollar faces downside risks ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenters speech and the Federal Reserves Jackson Hole symposium. Following the Treasurys announcement last week of an increase in long-term bond repurchase operations, Bessenter is likely to release information later regarding fiscal consolidation plans. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Friday. Halpenny indicated that Warsh is likely to continue to release relatively few signals about future policy, "and if credible fiscal consolidation measures are not announced by then, the long-term bond market could be particularly impacted."On August 24th, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data on Guangzhous economic performance from January to July 2026. From January to July, the citys fixed asset investment increased by 2.1% year-on-year. By sector, industrial investment increased by 4.2%, with industrial technological upgrading investment increasing by 13.7%; infrastructure investment decreased by 5.3%, but investment in key transportation projects saw rapid growth, with water transport and road transport investments increasing by 51.2% and 11.6% respectively; real estate development investment decreased by 6.4%. Large-scale equipment renewal policies have yielded significant results, with equipment and tooling investment growing well by 8.0%. Investment in new industrial sectors accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing investment increasing by 28.6%, including a 33.4% increase in investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing. Private investment remained vibrant, increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, with private industrial investment growing by 23.2%.On August 24th, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data on Guangzhous economic performance from January to July 2026. In the first seven months of this year, the citys industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.5% year-on-year, total retail sales increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 28.6%; revenue of the citys service sector above designated size increased by 12% year-on-year in the first half of the year. The citys industrial production maintained steady growth, modern service industries developed well, emerging growth drivers accelerated, and the industrial structure shifted towards innovation and optimization, maintaining an overall stable economic development trend. Among the three pillar industries, automobile manufacturing grew by 7.7%, electronic product manufacturing by 10.8%, and petrochemical manufacturing by 3.7%. The effects of the "two new" policies continued to emerge, with the added value of electrical machinery and equipment, general equipment, and special equipment manufacturing increasing by 14.6%, 11.4%, and 8.2%, respectively.On August 24th, it was learned from the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs that in the first seven months of this year, Customs Advanced Certified Enterprises (AEOs), accounting for only 1.11% of foreign trade enterprises, contributed 48.73% of the total foreign trade volume, with imports and exports increasing by 25.7%, making outstanding contributions to Guangdongs foreign trade. Customs promoted "credit empowerment and policy synergy," focusing on precise credit cultivation, providing effective enterprise coordinator services, and deepening cross-departmental joint incentives, helping to cultivate 2,035 Customs Advanced Certified Enterprises, ranking first in the country. This year, 111 new AEO enterprises were certified, significantly expanding the scope of AEO enterprises. Guided by the cultivation and strengthening of "chain leader" enterprises in 15 industrial chains, continuous efforts were made to promote innovative cultivation measures for upstream and downstream enterprises and enterprises within groups, cultivating 14 "chain leader" enterprises in Jiangmen City. This effectively supported the orderly undertaking of industrial transfer from the Pearl River Delta, empowered technological innovation for traditional pillar enterprises such as home appliances, textiles, and metal products, and helped key private enterprises improve their internal management and enhance their international competitiveness by aligning with international trade standards.On August 24, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference. Lin Jian introduced that the comprehensive strategic dialogue mechanism is a new mechanism established between China and Indonesia, providing important institutional support for deepening the "five pillars" cooperation between the two countries under the new circumstances. The China-Indonesia Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers "2+2" mechanism is the first ministerial-level "2+2" mechanism established by China globally, and this is the second meeting held by both sides. Lin Jian stated that as major developing countries and important members of the Global South, strengthening strategic cooperation and deepening solidarity and cooperation between China and Indonesia has significant and far-reaching implications that transcend the bilateral scope. The success of China-Indonesia cooperation is also a success for the Global South. China is willing to work with Indonesia to follow the strategic consensus reached by the two heads of state, effectively translate the consensus reached at relevant mechanism meetings into tangible results, expand and strengthen the all-round strategic cooperation between China and Indonesia, jointly resist risks and challenges, contribute to their respective modernization processes, and play a greater role in regional and global stability and prosperity.

Following a drop in oil prices, the USD/CAD has recovered

Larissa Barlow

Apr 01, 2022 10:03

Tips 

  • The dollar soared as progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks stalled.

  • Yields declined as investors considered inflation and macroeconomic indicators.

  • Because of the persistent geopolitical uncertainties, gold and silver prices have risen.

  • Oil prices are falling as Vice President Biden considers unleashing strategic petroleum stockpiles.

 

The dollar rises against the Loonie as modest progress in peace talks weakens the commodity-linked Loonie. Benchmark rates have fallen as inflation and macroeconomic data hint to rate hikes of 50 basis points. Until Biden's oil announcement, gold prices were on track for their strongest quarter in a decade. The announcement decreased demand for safe-haven gold and alleviated inflation concerns. Due to minimal progress in peace talks, the dollar rose versus the Euro and other commodity-linked currencies. Oil prices have fallen as the Biden administration considers deploying vast amounts of oil reserves. The government may release 180 million barrels over a six-month period, amounting to one million barrels every day. The United States has a stockpile of 570 million barrels. The strategy may have a greater impact on energy prices.

 

The PCE Deflator, which the Fed monitors, increased by 6.4 percent in February, up from 6 percent in January. The PCE index is a measure of the prices paid for goods and services in the domestic market. The reading was the largest increase since 1982. The figures point to a more significant growth in goods prices, while services remained relatively unchanged. Concerns regarding economic development arose as a result of rising inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Fed's preferred inflation index, core PCE inflation, which excludes food consumed at home and food services, climbed 5.4 percent year on year. The reading came up at 5.5 percent, which was little lower than expected.

Technical Evaluation

The USD/CAD is recovering as the Canadian dollar struggles with falling oil prices and continuing geopolitical tension. Despite today's recovery, the currency pair is under pressure and will continue to trade lower. Despite crossing above the key 1.25 barrier, the pair has since fallen below it and is now trading at 1.249. If the pair falls below 1.26, the negative trend may become less definite. Gains should be limited by resistance at the recent breakdown near 1.261. The horizontal trendline near the January lows of 1.246 provides support. Near the recent breakdown level of 1.261, resistance can be found. As a result of the fast stochastic's crossover buy signal, short-term momentum turns positive.

 

The MACD line generated a crossover sell signal, indicating a negative medium-term momentum. When the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) passes the MACD signal line, this occurs (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

 

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