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The SC crude oil futures contract hit its daily limit again, rising 13.99% to 641.1 yuan per barrel, after previously narrowing its gains to 5.64%.On March 4th, a research team at Natixis stated that under their baseline scenario, oil prices are likely to trade around $80 per barrel in the short term due to Irans limited ability to continue disrupting Middle Eastern oil flows. The team noted that current US and Israeli military actions against Iran are primarily focused on military and air transport facilities. Although Iran attacked a Saudi oil refinery and a Qatari liquefied natural gas facility earlier this week, there has been no substantial disruption to overall energy supplies. The report stated, "There are currently no significant disruptions to oil supply, only short-term disturbances in transport via the Strait of Hormuz."Iranian Foreign Ministry: German advisors are pressuring EU countries to conspire in acts of aggression against us.On March 4th, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if the economic and price outlook aligns with its expectations, while closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict. Speaking in parliament, Ueda said that developments in the Middle East could significantly impact the global and Japanese economies through rising energy costs and financial market volatility. "Rising oil prices will worsen Japans terms of trade and drag down the economy, which in turn could put downward pressure on underlying inflation." However, he added that if oil price increases continue, they could also push up underlying inflation by raising medium- to long-term inflation expectations for households and businesses. When asked about the recent depreciation of the yen, he said the Bank of Japan is analyzing "very cautiously" how exchange rate fluctuations will affect current and future price trends.On March 4th, Daiwa Research reported that it expects Baidus (09888.HK) Kunlun Chip IPO valuation to be higher than its peers due to its larger revenue scale and better profitability. Currently, Kunlun Chip derives most of its revenue from external demand, with major clients including Tencent and a large telecommunications operator. Management stated that chip production capacity constraints are not a short-term concern for the company, as Kunlun Chip has secured sufficient supply to support development over the next two years. The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating on Baidu with a target price of HK$175 and maintained its earnings forecasts for this year and next. Recent catalysts include the Kunlun Chip listing and details of the 2026 dividend plan.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis

Cory Russell

Aug 18, 2022 14:42



August E-mini Early on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging down after the previous session ended their five-day winning run. The price movement indicates that the current boom could be waning.


Deflating Target earnings news caused the blue chip average to fall early in the session on Wednesday. Despite the fact that the stock is not a part of the Dow, the news had a depressing effect on market mood.


A mixed data on U.S. retail sales later in the afternoon failed to excite investors since it increased the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September.


However, the transaction was impacted by the Fed minutes. Trading lowered the likelihood of a 75 basis point rate rise and boosted the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike since it was seen as less hawkish. The E-mini Dow was able to rise over its intraday low thanks to this.


September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are now trading at 33937, down 26 or -0.08%, as of 04:54 GMT. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished Wednesday's trading session at $340.21, down $1.53 or -0.45%.

Looking Forward

Following the Wednesday Closing Bell, Dow component Cisco increased by more than 3% as a consequence of the publication of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. This action may have provided a little floor for the market, but it wasn't noteworthy enough to raise prices.


A deluge of U.S. economic data, including the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the Conference Board's Leading Index, will be available for traders to respond to later today.


The Philly Fed data may be the most important, particularly if it is far worse than expected, as the Empire State Manufacturing Index was on Monday.


Technically speaking, the Dow may be running a bit too hot, which might give the Fed cause to try to aggressively raise interest rates in an effort to bring it down.

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