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New Zealand Reserve Bank Chief Economist Conway: The neutral interest rate is always fluctuating.1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44%, the S&P 500 down 0.16%, and the Nasdaq down 0.76%. Walmart rose nearly 5%, with Caterpillar rising over 4%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind SEV index fell 1.26%, with Nvidia down over 4% and Amazon down over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Zai Lab down nearly 6% and GDS down over 5%. 2. The three major European stock indices closed mixed, with Germanys DAX down 0.62%, Frances CAC 40 down 0.15%, and the U.K.s FTSE 100 up 0.1%. 3. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 3.54 basis points to 3.489%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 4.70 basis points to 3.486%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 4.17 basis points to 3.606%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 2.50 basis points to 4.028%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 0.67 basis points to 4.629%. 4. International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.64% to $4,159.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. Federal Reserve officials indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately tight. The U.S. government shutdown exacerbated market volatility, and the IMF warned that tariffs are weakening the global growth outlook. 5. The International Energy Agency released a bearish forecast, with the main WTI crude oil contract at $58.59 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract fell 1.64% to $62.28 per barrel. 6. Base metal prices fell across the board in London: LME zinc futures fell 2.23% to $2,953.50 per ton, LME copper futures fell 2.05% to $10,598.50 per ton, LME tin futures fell 1.22% to $35,290.00 per ton, LME aluminum futures fell 0.85% to $2,739.50 per ton, LME nickel futures fell 0.66% to $15,105.00 per ton, and LME lead futures fell 0.58% to $1,977.50 per ton.On October 15th, the U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on October 14th, preventing it from advancing a temporary appropriations bill proposed by the Republicans. The bill required 60 votes to advance, but the vote was 49 in favor and 45 against. It is reported that if passed, the temporary appropriations bill will provide funding for the government until November 21st, but the bill does not address any health care demands put forward by the Democrats.New Zealand Reserve Bank Chief Economist Conway: We must avoid options that threaten the independence of monetary policy operations or ignore medium-term inflationary pressures.Conway, chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: We will continue to update our approach to be as prepared as possible to help New Zealand cope with various economic storms that may arise in the future.

EU leaders cannot agree on a gas price ceiling amid an energy shortage

Skylar Williams

Oct 20, 2022 14:46

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In an effort to decrease energy prices, the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union will meet on Thursday for the second time in two weeks. Due to ongoing debates, it is uncertain if the union will cap the price at which it purchases natural gas at this time.


Following their earlier agreement to decrease consumption and apply taxes on windfall gains in the energy industry, the 27 are anticipated to endorse an alternative pricing benchmark for liquefied natural gas and joint gas purchasing.


As a result of Russia's blockade of gas exports in reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, they are as divided as they were many months ago regarding whether and how to control gas prices to battle excessive inflation and avert a recession.


While 15 nations, including France and Poland, support a quota of some kind, they face strong opposition from Germany and the Netherlands, Europe's largest economy and largest gas consumer, and a major European gas trading centre, respectively.


Prior to Thursday's meetings, a senior EU diplomat indicated that "an agreement is highly unlikely... Opinions appear to be significantly different."


In addition, they will discuss emergency spending to mitigate the impact of the severe energy crisis on their separate economies and 450 million citizens.


While some nations have encouraged the group to issue new debt to finance this, more frugal members believe that the hundreds of billions of euros left over from previous initiatives should be spent first.


A second contentious issue is whether to provide immediate assistance through direct subsidies to individuals and businesses or to invest in green energy to make the bloc more resilient in the future.


The summit's leader, the president of the European Council, declared, "Diversity is not a luxury we can afford."


Given the diverse energy mix and interests of EU member states, the summit risks falling short of actual action, with other problems such as whether a gas cap would allow the United Kingdom to purchase energy at a lower price or undermine the reliability of energy supplies.


E3G, a research tank focused on the transition to a low-carbon economy, stated, "Unity among member states is gravely threatened by unilateral national decisions announced in the absence of an EU framework to tie them together."


This fragmentation...could harm the credibility of the EU's reaction.


According to a senior EU diplomat, additional concrete decisions are not expected before November. The EU energy ministers will meet again next week.

KRIEG IN UKRAINE

EU leaders will also consider measures for offering extra support to Ukraine, such as providing energy equipment, aiding in the restoration of the power supply, and providing long-term finance for the nation's future rehabilitation.


As it pertains to bringing those suspected of committing war crimes in Ukraine to justice, some EU members seek to establish a specialized tribunal immediately, but others wish to move more cautiously in order to attract the most international support.


The draft statement of the leaders states, "The European (Union) Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the recent indiscriminate Russian missile and drone attacks on civilians and civilian property and infrastructure in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine."


They will identify Belarus for its role in assisting Russia's conflict, but it is unlikely that they will support more sanctions against Moscow on Thursday.


In response to Iran's use of Iranian-made drones in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the bloc is working to impose more sanctions against Iran.