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Real-time News
On August 13th, sources close to the European Commission president stated that Ukraines allies are evaluating a gradual easing of sanctions against Russia if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is reached. The source added that sanctions would be reimposed in the event of a violation of the agreement. They hope to immediately reach a 15-day ceasefire (during which sanctions would remain in effect) before a more organized pause in the conflict in Ukraine can be achieved. Separately, Italian government sources stated that they will push Trump to include Europe in his discussions on Ukraine during his video call with Putin later today. An Italian diplomat explained, "He has been asking European countries to increase military spending, so we must be involved in these decisions." The source added that during the call, Italy will emphasize the need for clear military, economic, and political guarantees for Ukraine.AMD (AMD.O) shares rose 3% in pre-market trading in the U.S.Poland signs $3.8 billion deal to boost F-16 fleet capabilities.On August 13, CNBC reported that two unnamed government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unnamed names. These new members include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, and BlackRocks Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder. They join the eight candidates previously confirmed by CNBC: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson. Officials also confirmed that the list also includes Mark Summerlin, a former economic adviser in the Bush administration; Dallas Fed President Logan; and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Officials described a "deliberative process" in which Treasury Secretary Bessant will meet with all candidates, whittle down the list, and present the final list to the president for a decision. The size of the list and the process described suggest a decision is not imminent and could take considerable time. However, officials declined to provide a timeline.On August 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that the Federal Reserves interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and that if the data were accurate, the Fed could have cut rates earlier. Bessant believes a 50 basis point rate cut is possible, with a series of cuts likely starting in September. Regarding the selection of the Fed chair, he mentioned that they will cast a wide net, encompassing 10-11 people. He also stated that he had proposed establishing a "shadow Fed chair" but now believes it is unnecessary. Furthermore, Bessant believes the Fed does not need to resume large-scale asset purchases (QE). Regarding the jobs report, he expressed opposition to halting its release, but emphasized the need for reliable data. Some analysts say the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is now almost zero. For this to happen, another weak non-farm payroll report would likely be needed in September.
