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Futures news on May 15th, oil prices stopped rising and fell slightly. The supply and demand of fuel oil products showed differences. Medium and high sulfur resources can be negotiated and shipped at low prices. Downstream procurement is cautious at high levels. Refineries are making profit concessions to promote shipments. The news is bearish. It is expected that fuel oil trading will be mainly stable today, with some narrow adjustments.May 15th news, early this morning, Google Deepmind released on its official website, AlphaEvolve, a programming AI Agent for designing advanced algorithms. It is worth mentioning that when Google demonstrated the capabilities of AlphaEvolve, it deliberately found a difficult mathematical problem that has been around for more than 300 years - the kissing number problem. The history of this problem can be traced back to 1694, and Newton also debated and studied it with others. The difficulty lies in the maximum number of spheres of the same size that can touch a central sphere at the same time in a space of a given dimension without overlapping. AlphaEvolve discovered a structural type consisting of 593 outer spheres and established a new lower bound in 11-dimensional space, surpassing the record set by mathematicians before.Japans Topix index fell 1%.Futures News on May 15th, overnight crude oil fluctuated at a high level and was weak, and a short-term head pattern may form near important resistance. The reference pressure level of US oil is around $62.9/barrel. 1. From the perspective of supply and demand, crude oil is still under overall pressure, and OPEC+ production increase may be a relatively certain event. The OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC+ total production fell in April, and the member countries that agreed to increase production only increased production by 25,000 barrels/day (planned 138,000 barrels/day). On the one hand, the data needs to be verified, and on the other hand, if OPEC+ production increases are less than expected, it may change the previous supply and demand expectations. It is still difficult to see a certain increase on the demand side. The previous oil price fell below the production cut bottom mainly because OPEC+ withdrew from production cuts and planned to speed up production increases. Pay attention to crude oil supply data and retain the sensitivity of expected revisions. 2. In terms of geopolitics, Iran will promise never to manufacture nuclear weapons and destroy its highly enriched uranium stocks that can be used for weaponization in exchange for lifting economic sanctions on Iran, which will be bearish for oil prices, but it is still unknown whether the US-Iran negotiations can be implemented. 3. From a technical perspective, oil prices plummeted below the bottom of production cuts for many years and then rebounded for the second time to test the pressure level. The weekly level of U.S. oil showed a state of breaking, testing and oscillating. U.S. oil near $64 per barrel is still showing pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the performance of U.S. oil near $61.4 per barrel. If it falls below this line, there is a probability of a short-term head pattern. The trading end still maintains the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term, and shorts are cautious in holding.On May 15, the day before Russia and Ukraine agreed to negotiate in Istanbul, Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on the composition of the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegation on the 14th, with Russian presidential assistant Mekinsky as the head of the delegation. Analysts believe that on key issues such as Ukraines "demilitarization", whether Ukraine will give up joining NATO, and territorial ownership, Russia and Ukraine still have differences that are difficult to bridge, and both sides are unwilling to make concessions, so the prospects of this meeting are unpredictable. Alexander Bonov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States, believes that Russia proposed negotiations between the two sides but did not agree to a ceasefire. Its purpose is to allow the Russian army to continue to put pressure on Ukraine on the battlefield to promote talks.

During the Fed's "Silence," gold maintains a delicate dance

Aria Thomas

Jul 19, 2022 10:28

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A few dollars here, a few dollars there: gold maintained its delicate dance on Monday, climbing little despite the Federal Reserve's utter silence following two weeks of relative hubbub over the possibility of a major rate increase in July.


Gold bulls and bears were left to choose their next moves on their own, as the central bank adhered to its regular 'blackout' period for comments before its rate announcement on July 27.


A week of relatively sparse U.S. economic data offered traders greater control over market flows.


Despite the insignificance of the climb itself, the Dollar Index's steepest one-day loss since mid-June helped establish the direction in favor of longs.


The most commonly traded gold futures contract on the New York Comex, August, finished at $1,710.20 per ounce, up $6.60, or 0.5 percent.


Thursday's price of $1,695 for the August gold contract was the lowest level in 27 months.


The U.S. gold standard has dropped for five straight weeks, shedding 9% in total. It has declined by 7 percent year-to-date.


Since the Consumer Price Index for the year to June hit a new four-decade high of 9.1 percent on Wednesday, rate betting has been unpredictable, with the pendulum swinging between an unusual hike of 100 basis points for July and the wider consensus of a 75 basis point increase.


Prior to Monday, the dollar had also repeatedly reached two-decade highs, dealing a severe blow to non-dollar consumer oil demand.


Ed Moya, an analyst at the online trading platform OANDA, said, "The dollar is falling to begin the trading week, but this may not be the high." "As a result, gold may have difficulty surpassing $1,750," he added.


According to Sunil Kumar Dixit, the chief technical strategist at skchart.com, if gold is able to break out over $1745 it might proceed to $1770-$1800 and $1815 from there.


"As a previous safe haven, gold is not yet out of the woods, and its doors remain open for another slide below $1,700, this time targeting $1683, $1,666, and $1,652," Dixit added.

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