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On May 14th, US international trade commodity prices rose sharply in April, with import prices (market expectation +1.0%) rising 1.9% month-over-month and export prices (market expectation +1.1%) surging 3.3%. This much-anticipated increase indicates that the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to exert pressure on input costs, a point already reflected in the Feds Beige Book in early April as a compression of corporate profit margins. Core import prices (excluding fuel) had already begun to rise significantly before the Iran conflict, and this months 0.8% increase was the same as in February, but this may already include the secondary impact of rising energy prices. Food and feed prices were also significantly affected by rising oil prices, rising 1.1% in March and then another 0.9% in April. Industrial supplies and raw materials (excluding fuel) rose 1.6%; fuel prices surged 16.3%. Capital goods prices were also worrying, rising 1.1%. Consumer goods rose 0.4%, a relatively moderate increase, but still high; automobile prices fell slightly by 0.1%.On May 14th, executives from over ten well-known American companies accompanied President Trump on his visit to China, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon. In an interview, Amon stated that the Chinese economy is dynamic.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 617.40 yuan per barrel.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in the Colombian region.May 14th - Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but analysts warn that more vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals during transit. According to Lloyds List, a shipping publication, tanker owners are preparing for prolonged shipping disruptions as regional risks remain high. Current traffic volume is still far below pre-conflict levels. At that time, approximately 130 vessels carrying about 20% of the worlds oil and gas supply passed through the strait daily.

Dow Posts Worst Weekly Drop of 2023 on Aggressive Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Skylar Shaw

Feb 27, 2023 16:37

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In February, stocks fell as a flood of economic data heightened concerns that the Fed might need to keep interest rates higher for longer.


After experiencing significant losses on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its largest weekly decline of 2023 as investors prepared for the chance of more aggressive rate increases from the US Federal Reserve as US economic data indicated robust consumers.

The blue chip Dow ended the trading day on Friday at 32,816.72, down 336.99 or 1.02%. Its monthly decrease of 3% was the greatest since September. Additionally, it was the Dow's longest losing run in almost ten months as it dropped for the fourth consecutive week.


Stocks have declined this month after a robust January as a flurry of economic data increased concerns that the U.S. central bank might need to keep rates higher for longer.


According to data released on Friday, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation indicator, jumped by 0.6% in January after increasing by just 0.2% in December. Over two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States is attributed to consumer expenditure, which increased 1.8% last month despite expectations for a 1.3% increase.


The highest rate is anticipated to be in the region of 5.25%-5.5% by June, according to Fed Funds dealers, who increased their wagers on at least three additional rate increases this year.


Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, said the Fed should increase rates if required in order to completely manage inflation.

Outcomes by Industry

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's best-performing categories were Energy (up 1.39%), Minerals (up 1.19%), Consumer Goods (up 0.88%), Communications (up 0.81%), and Financials (up 0.45%).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's lagging industries were: Healthcare, down 0.12%; Information Technology, down 0.04%; and Industrials, up 0.01%.