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Determining Bitcoin's Trend Allows for More Manageable Trading

Saqib Iqbal

Dec 21, 2021 14:32

I generally present my Elliott Wave Principle count, however I wish to concentrate on something else since the Bulls fumbled the ball a couple of weeks ago (see my previous update here). In this case, identifying a pattern as "the pattern is always your good friend" in trading. Why? It helps us figure out to be aggressive, conservative, or downright Bearish and make trading less complicated.

 

I constantly start my daily crypto trading updates with my "the pattern is your friend chart.": see Figure 1 listed below. It is so simple; one does not even need to understand BTC's actual rate to inform us if the cost is trending greater or lower and how one should place oneself.

 

image.png

The pattern is down. Trade it accordingly.

Here I plot BTC's rate as a dotted line due to the fact that I just need to understand where it is worrying the following indicators: 4 simple moving averages (SMAs), the Ichimoku Cloud (the Cloud), and the Bollinger Bands. These variables help determine what the pattern is. Specifically, the SMAs are: very short-term (VST), short-term (ST), intermediate-term (IT), and long-term (LT).

 

It is a Bullish pattern when BTC's rate is above the VST, above the ST, > IT, > LT. In addition, all SMAs must be increasing. One likewise desires the price above "the Cloud," The Cloud requires to be green (rising) too, to know the trend is 100% Bullish. Finally, the uptrend is powerful if the rate is at the upper Bollinger Band. Trading strategy: by the dip (BDP), remain long, offer into strength.

 

Figure 1 reveals three such durations with the blue boxes. As you can see, with such a setup, the trend is your friend for long positions. Yes, the VST-SMA can dip below the ST-SMA, but that's your "BDP" for shorter-term traders.

 

On the other hand, the pattern becomes Bearish when BTC's price drops listed below "the Cloud," consequently listed below more of the SMAs, and "flights" the lower Bollinger Bands. Figure 1 shows two such durations over the past 15 months: red boxes. Trading technique: end up being conservative, i.e., raise cash, offer the rips, potentially brief the crypto.

 

As you can see, following this chart could have avoided a lot of pain throughout the May through July sell-off. And preventing substantial drawdowns is still the most reliable method to riches as it allows one to protect capital, which is then prepared to be deployed during the next uptrend. Or, as they state, "( s) he who loses the least amount of cash comes out the winner," and "wash, soap, repeat."

 

BTC got in an initial drop for the Bulls in mid-November early December as the VST and ST-SMAs dropped listed below the IT-SMA. That does not occur in strong uptrends (see blue boxes). In early December, the preliminary drop was confirmed when BTC also moved below "the Cloud."

 

Adding fuel to the fire, the crypto is now also trading below its LT-SMA. Hence, there is now a BTC<IT>VST< ST< IT< the Cloud setup, exhibited by the 5 red arrows in what I call "the traffic control." The traffic light has actually been nearly entirely red over the past several weeks. That suggests "caution, stop, and so on". Something I interact with my premium crypto trading members daily.

 

Hence the present pattern is not the Bulls' buddy and similar to June-July when BTC lost another 25%. As such, the pattern informs us to look lower, not greater. Two weeks ago, I was already trying to find ideally $28-36K. See here. With BTC presently trading at around $46K it has room to drop some more, which is what the "pattern is your good friend" chart tells us.

Bottom line

The Bitcoin Bulls fumbled the ball already two weeks earlier, and because the price of BTC has decreased another 10%. Here I provide an easy "the pattern is your buddy" chart that objectively assists determine if BTC is trending greater or lower and if one, therefore, ought to anticipate lower or higher prices. That pattern, in turn, allows us to identify how to trade BTC. The existing setup currently called for "raising money, conservative mode" a couple of weeks earlier, and that strategy has yet to be proven wrong. When the trend changes once again, we have lots of time to ride the uptrend and release the money stashed on the sidelines. Due to the fact that please remember, "money is also a position." Trade safely!

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