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On January 14th, Brian Martin, Head of G3 Economy Research at ANZ Bank, stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in January, but the view that the rate-cutting cycle is on a long-term pause lacks a reasonable basis. He believes the Fed should resume rate cuts soon, with the committee likely to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in March and another 25 basis points in June, bringing the target rate down to 3.00%-3.25% by mid-year. Martin pointed out that as the impact of previous tariffs on price increases fades, wage growth slows, and housing inflation cools, US inflation will gradually moderate by 2026.A Bank of Korea official stated that the USD/KRW exchange rate above 1400 is inconsistent with economic fundamentals.On January 14th, it was reported that seven departments, including the China Meteorological Administration, jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Collaborative Development and Promoting High-Quality Development of Health and Wellness Meteorological Services." The "Guiding Opinions" propose that by 2027, a nationwide collaborative and vertically integrated health and wellness meteorological technology innovation and service framework will be basically established; by 2030, a relatively complete health and wellness meteorological technology innovation and service business system will be formed, significantly improving the efficiency of collaborative development across the entire health and wellness chain and multiple fields. The "Guiding Opinions" also propose strengthening meteorological services for population health, providing refined services to different groups. Various departments will strengthen the risk prevention and control product system, providing refined risk warning services to the public, medical institutions, and elderly care institutions based on region, season, and population; collaboratively promote the prevention and control of allergenic pollen and other pollen allergens, jointly formulate standards and specifications, and coordinate observation equipment; and improve meteorological services for elderly health and wellness.On January 14th, futures market news reported that international crude oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, with Brent crude increasing by a cumulative $5.51 per barrel. This led to a positive turn in the crude oil price change rate during this pricing cycle, providing policy support for refined oil market prices. Recently, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen to relatively low levels, with crack spreads at a low level and limited price differences between truck and vessel sales units. Driven by profit motives, sales units may attempt to push prices up. However, considering the current lack of substantial growth in gasoline and diesel demand, the sustainability of price increases is expected to be limited.Indonesian Deputy Minister of Energy: The government has decided to maintain the biodiesel program at the B40 level this year.

DAX, FTSE 100 Forecast: Key Levels to Watch

Cameron Murphy

Apr 08, 2022 11:16

REPRIEVE OF THE DAX TO BE SHORT-TERM

DAX: The equities market is taking a more upbeat tone as European bourses try to recover from yesterday's steep losses. Despite the temporary respite, risk assets remain vulnerable to negative threats. Last week's failure at the 14800 pivot signals that this region will continue to restrict relief rallies in the index, making it a good place to avoid. A break below 14000, on the other hand, paves the way to 13500-13600.


While Fed speakers will be scrutinized, little new information is anticipated, given what has already been revealed in the FOMC minutes and Fed Governor Brainard's aggressive remarks. However, as we get closer to the May FOMC meeting, risk assets are expected to come under pressure, thus stocks remain a sell on relief rallies.

THE FTSE 100 CONTINUES TO BE UNDERPINNED BY HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES

FTSE 100: Despite a small drop in the index, the FTSE 100 has outperformed its main peers. Given the large exposure to commodity-related firms, the index has managed to scrape out moderate gains year to far, rising 2.5 percent. In terms of technical analysis, the index seems to be fatigued after failing to hold above 7600.


On the downside, support may be found between 7500 and 7515-30. The FTSE 100, however, is not the greatest option for investors seeking for downside, since rising commodities prices give a moderate degree of support, when compared to indexes with significant tech exposure.