EUR/USD
1.18001
0.353%
Gold
4765.01
0.522%
Oil
91.794
-0.976%
USD/JPY
158.720
-0.455%
GBP/USD
1.35850
0.582%
GBP/JPY
215.627
0.132%
Real-time News
The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook report in ten minutes.On April 14th, Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the US March overall and core PPI year-on-year and month-on-month rates were all significantly lower than market expectations. Given that market forecasts primarily revolved around the anticipated surge in energy prices, the focus is on where the discrepancy lies. While energy prices did indeed rise sharply, the increase was less than expected: refined oil products surged (gasoline +15.7%, diesel +42.0%, etc.), but natural gas plummeted by 51.7%, partially offsetting the overall impact. The services sector unexpectedly remained flat (0.0% month-on-month), and this sector, accounting for approximately 68% of the total, was the main reason for the weaker-than-expected data. One driving factor was declining trade margins, with retailers absorbing some energy costs rather than passing them on. Transportation prices rose by 1.3%, but with only 5% weighting, it was insufficient to offset the shortfall. Food prices fell by 0.3%, also dragging down the overall data. In short, market expectations over-focused on crude oil, underestimating three factors: the natural gas plunge, compressed trade margins, and slowing inflation in core services. Energy transmission did exist, but its magnitude was narrow, and the pricing power of other parts of the economy weakened.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: We will continue to closely monitor the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economic outlook and financial conditions.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: It should be noted that the possibility of a price increase mechanism may be strengthening compared to the past.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: If rising oil prices lead to an increase in long-term inflation expectations, then this will accelerate the rise in actual inflation.
