Concerned about OPEC+ production increase next week, oil price rise temporarily

On Friday (October 1), US crude oil fell slightly because the market expected OPEC+, which is composed of oil-producing countries, to increase planned production to ease supply concerns. However, soaring natural gas prices prompted power companies to switch from natural gas to oil.


All eyes in the market are now on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies headed by Russia (collectively referred to as OPEC+) to be held on Monday. Oil-producing countries will discuss options beyond the existing agreement to increase production in November and December by 400,000 barrels per day.

Analysts from the Research Department of ANZ Bank stated in the report: "The OPEC+ meeting to be held on Monday is critical to the direction of oil prices next week. If the increase in production exceeds 400,000 barrels per day, we will see some short-term relief on the supply side."

In July, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing countries led by Russia agreed to increase daily production by 400,000 barrels per month and gradually withdraw from plans to reduce daily production by 5.8 million barrels.

Four OPEC+ sources said that it is possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or specific month. Another OPEC+ source said that there may be an increase of 800,000 barrels per day in the next month, and there may be no increase in production in the next month.

Since the OPEC+ last meeting decided on the October output, the fastest month to increase production is November.

"We cannot rule out any options," said an OPEC+ source. Another source said that the oil market may need more oil than the existing agreement, which is "one of the possible scenarios." Sources said on Wednesday that the most likely outcome is that the organization will stick to existing plans.

It is still unclear what caused this change in tone, but before that, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held a meeting to assess the market prospects, and it is expected that under its basic scenario forecast, the oil market will appear 140 next year. The surplus of 10,000 barrels per day is slightly lower than the previously predicted surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day.

Prior to the OPEC+ online meeting on October 4, negotiations between member states continued, and there was no guarantee that they would agree to additional production increases.

The White House, which expressed concern about high oil prices in August, said on Tuesday that it was communicating with OPEC to find a way to solve the problem of oil costs.

The energy ministers of OPEC member states of Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates have stated in recent weeks that the organization does not see the need for special measures to change existing agreements.

(U.S. crude oil daily chart)

At 12:12 GMT+8, U.S. crude oil was quoted at $74.96 per barrel.