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Real-time News
On June 16th, economists warned that it could take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal and for natural gas prices to fall back to pre-conflict levels. However, they noted that while U.S. inflation accelerated in May, reaching its fastest pace in over three years, this trend has likely peaked. "If weve learned anything from the last three months, its that predicting the energy and oil markets is extremely difficult," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup. "But looking at the overall trend, I think everyone would agree that the current trajectory is downward." News of the interim U.S.-Iran agreement led to a drop in oil prices while boosting the stock market. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated, "The market has concluded that the agreement is complete, everything is going well, and were essentially returning to a near-pre-conflict state of affairs."① Iran 1. Iranian Foreign Minister says the invasion of Lebanon must be stopped. 2. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iranian armed forces will remain on high alert; our fingers are on the trigger to deal with any conspiracy. 3. Iranian military spokesperson: We will strengthen our defenses and maintain a higher state of readiness than ever before during the agreement with the United States. ② United States 1. Trump: The important thing is that oil prices have fallen sharply while the stock market is rising. 2. The Trump administration plans to establish a $300 billion Iran fund, funded by corporations. ③ Israel 1. According to Israels Yad Dub newspaper, sources say Netanyahu has informed Trump that Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause in the agreement and will not withdraw its troops from Lebanon. 2. According to Al Arabiya: Israeli media, citing sources, say the Israeli cabinet supports Netanyahus policy on Lebanon. 3. According to Israels Channel 13: A senior Israeli official said the US-Iran agreement is a disastrous deal for Israel. 4. Netanyahu: The operation is not over yet; we must continue to strengthen our forces. We will remain in the safe zone for the necessary length of time. 5. Israeli military: The Israeli military intercepted multiple rockets fired by Hezbollah towards forces in southern Lebanon. 6. Israeli Defense Minister: The Israel Defense Forces will remain in the security zone of Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. If Iran attacks Israel because of the events in Lebanon, we will attack Iran. 7. Israeli National Security Minister Gevel stated that Trumps agreement "is not binding on us," and Israel must not withdraw its troops from any occupied or cleared territory, nor remain silent about actions that fire upon Israel. We must resolutely dismantle Hezbollah. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Several Iranian vessels successfully passed through the US maritime blockade zone. 2. Recordings show that the US military is still enforcing the maritime blockade against Iran. 3. Iranian media reported that the Iran-US agreement clearly defines the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Iran: Will charge fees for shipping services related to the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Iran stated that the access to and from the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. 6. Trump stated that ships loaded with oil are safely leaving the Strait of Hormuz. 7. The first energy transport ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran agreement. 8. Macron: The Franco-British escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz is ready to begin at any time. 9. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: No decision has been made yet regarding the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz. 10. US Vice President Vance: The Strait of Hormuz will remain open indefinitely. It is expected that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be free for a long period. 11. The US military reported that the US blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect until an agreement is reached with Iran on June 19. 12. According to Irans Mehr News Agency: Three explosions were heard south of Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. The explosions may be related to traffic control. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Switzerland stated that it has not yet received a request to host the US-Iran signing ceremony. 2. Iranian President: Iran and the United States will sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th. 3. Iranian Vice President: The agreement reached will guarantee all of Irans interests. 4. US Vice President Vance: Trump may travel to Geneva to attend the signing ceremony. 5. According to AFP: The US and Iran will hold preparatory talks in Doha before signing the agreement. 6. Irans Security Council reiterated that the US-Iran agreement includes an immediate and permanent end to the conflict in Lebanon. 7. According to CNN: US Vice President Vance stated that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is about one and a half pages long, making it a very general document. 8. Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. The contents of the US-Iran agreement will be released after its signing on the 19th. The Strait of Hormuz will be fully open on Friday. 9. Senior US official: The US may take small-scale measures regarding sanctions and funding. The US is willing to release funds in stages. Israels withdrawal from Lebanon is not a condition of the agreement with Iran. ⑥ Other situations: 1. Britain, France, Germany, and Italy announced they will lift sanctions against Iran. 2. Iran set the price of its light sweet crude oil sold to Asia in July at a premium of $7.15 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average. 3. According to Lebanese sources on the 15th, Israeli forces launched attacks on several locations in southern Lebanon that morning. 4. Hezbollah in Lebanon: Fired rockets and artillery shells at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon; the conflict continues. 5. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Iran must fundamentally change its behavior before the EU can lift any sanctions against it.SEC filings show that Nvidia (NVDA.O) has applied for a seven-part note offering of up to $25 billion.June 16th - On Monday, local time, the spot delivery price of natural gas at the Wahaha Hub in Texas, a key indicator of shale basin prices, was 35 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), marking its first positive close since February and ending a 131-day streak of prices below zero. High temperatures, increased production following maintenance of some pipelines, and recent signs of expansion of key pipelines all contributed to the price increase. This positive news is a good sign for producers such as Pemlin Resources and Devon Energy, which had previously shut down some wells with extremely high gas-to-oil ratios to avoid further financial strain.On June 16th, PGIM, a US asset management firm, held a fringe view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates three times this year to curb an overheated economy, before reversing the rate hikes in 2027. The firm had previously predicted a rate cut by the Fed this year in April. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, necessitating a new strategy. Given this backdrop, and considering the Feds failure to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to raise rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM stated, "If the rate hikes are described as a precautionary measure to address supply-side inflation and recent volatility in long-term Treasury bonds, then Warsh will gain political support." However, PGIM indicated that it expects the Fed to "reverse these rate hikes relatively quickly, implementing three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%—below current levels and potentially close to the neutral rate."
