EUR/USD
1.15746
-0.035%
Gold
4334.18
-1.865%
Oil
84.308
0.259%
USD/JPY
159.609
0.093%
GBP/USD
1.35313
-0.082%
GBP/JPY
215.958
0.011%
Real-time News
On August 19th, Kenji Koshimizu, co-head of Mizuhos global markets division, stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates again as early as September, potentially increasing the frequency of policy adjustments from approximately once every six months to once every three months. Koshimizu noted that the weak yen and inflationary pressures are pushing the BOJ to accelerate its actions, and he does not rule out two rate hikes before the end of the year, bringing the policy rate to 1.5%. The market currently anticipates a 78% probability of a rate hike by the BOJ on September 18th. He stated that Mizuho will continue its conservative Japanese government bond investment strategy, focusing only on inflation-linked bonds and short-term government bonds. Although the 10-year JGB yield has risen to a 30-year high, it remains below Japans nominal economic growth rate of approximately 4%. Koshimizu believes that global structural changes and investment growth may further push up Japans neutral interest rate, while inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. Regarding the yen, he stated that the joint intervention by the US and Japan reflects both sides desire to prevent further yen depreciation, but the yens weakness is partly due to Japans loose monetary policy. He anticipates that the Japanese economy is undergoing a significant transformation in decades, and while the Japanese stock market remains attractive, financial market volatility may intensify.According to relevant documents, Brazilian energy company Cosan has formally notified the New York Stock Exchange of its intention to delist its American Depositary Receipts (ADS).August 19th - Bond traders are once again adjusting their strategies. After a series of data suggested that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates for the remainder of the year, options market bets are attempting to hedge against the risk of the Fed turning to rate cuts in 2027. This dovish bet contradicts recent movements in the U.S. Treasury market: long-term bond yields have risen to multi-year highs because a Fed wait-and-see approach would allow inflation to remain above target for a longer period. Options traders, whose policy path is closely tied to the Feds, are turning their attention to signs of a weakening U.S. economy, believing this could trigger a market reversal. This move emerged after data released last week showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Feds September meeting. Options market participants subsequently began adjusting their positions, reducing the magnitude of rate hikes priced in for the coming months in the swap market. Some options are even considering hedging against a potential rate cut by the middle of next year. "The fear of rate hikes has eased," said Jeff Shul, head of interest rates at Constitution Capital, noting that recent positions betting on this outcome are being liquidated.Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is advancing various initiatives to promote competition in the banking sector.On August 19, French Foreign Minister Jean-Michel Barrow announced on social media that France would expel two Iranian diplomats in response to the detention and interrogation of two French diplomats by Iranian security services. Barrow had posted on social media on July 20 that Iranian security services had detained and interrogated two French embassy staff members for several hours the previous evening, violating their diplomatic immunity. Barrow also said he had told the Iranian Foreign Minister that this action was "extremely serious and unacceptable" and "will have consequences." The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on August 18, local time, saying that given the two French diplomats violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Iran had decided to declare them persona non grata and prohibit them from entering Iran.
