Burundi oil rose to $79 to close at the highest level in three years, waiting for the OPEC+ production meeting next week

On Friday (October 1), oil futures rose 0.97 US dollars, or 1.24%, and settled at 79.28 US dollars per barrel, which was close to the three-year high reached this week. The weekly closed high for the sixth consecutive week. U.S. oil rose 0.85 US dollars, or 1.13%, to close at 75.88 US dollars. With the global natural gas, the recent surge in coal prices has prompted power generators to abandon natural gas and switch to oil, and the oil market is supported. At the same time, the market has gradually turned its attention to the OPEC+ meeting to be held next Monday, looking at whether it is possible to further increase production.

Power generators in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Middle East have already begun to change fuels, abandoning natural gas and turning to oil. At the same time, investors are also paying attention to the demands of large Asian consumer countries to require state-owned enterprises to ensure the demand for crude oil after winter energy supply at all costs. According to the Securities Times, on the evening of September 27, Hao Peng, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, presided over a special meeting on energy supply protection attended by the main leaders of central enterprises such as power grids, power generation, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and went to relevant companies on October 1 to conduct field investigations. , To supervise and guide enterprises to further do a good job in ensuring energy supply.

JPMorgan Chase has warned that as natural gas prices have soared to prompt consumers to switch fuels, it has raised its Brent crude oil price target from $78 to $84 per barrel. Analysts such as Natasha Kaneva and Gregory Shearer stated in reports to clients that the shift in consumption from natural gas to oil could increase daily demand by up to 925,000 barrels, possibly adding another $3 to the bank’s target price. We believe that 925,000 barrels per day may be close to the upper limit of how much oil can obtain from natural gas, and'fundamentally' limit the price of Brent crude oil to around US$90 per barrel. Weak physical demand in Asia confirms that refineries in major consumer countries are reducing production or entering the maintenance phase. OPEC+ has little incentive to increase production on the basis of the current commitment to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Monday, and the alliance is slowly withdrawing from last year's record production cut. The source said that the alliance is considering other options besides the existing agreement to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day. Speculation about whether OPEC will decide to increase production continues to rise. The survey showed that OPEC resumed 360,000 barrels/day production in September.

Citigroup Ed Morse and other analysts predict in a research report that OPEC+ may increase production at the meeting next Monday, and the scale may exceed its original target of 400,000 barrels per month. After the Brent oil price rises above US$80 per barrel, the increase in production in November may double to 800,000 barrels per day or more. OPEC+ has sufficient spare capacity to double the rate of production increase before the end of the year, and OPEC+'s increase in production still lags behind the demand recovery. However, IHS Markit energy market analyst Marshall Steeves believes that in view of the signs of rising global demand, OPEC+ may increase production quotas. Nevertheless, some member states are unable to reach their own production quota levels, and ministers may decide to maintain production quotas unchanged to support the current oil price level.

Energy services company Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report on Friday that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 7 in the week ending October 1, to 528, the most since April 2020. The market is also concerned about whether the U.S. Congress can advance President Biden’s agenda. The progressive Democrats in the House of Representatives said they would block a $1 trillion foundation without reaching an agreement on a larger-scale social spending and climate change bill. Facilities motion.

(Daily chart of oil distribution)