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April 5th - In recent weeks, aviation fuel prices have surged from $85-90 per barrel to $150-200 per barrel, posing a significant challenge to the global aviation industry, with many airlines adjusting their operating strategies. On April 4th, local time, Manix Fortmar, Chairman of the Representative Committee of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, airlines could face pressure to cancel flights within six weeks. Benjamin Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM Group, stated that the company is preparing for potential fuel shortages. Michael OLeary, CEO of Ryanair, Europes largest low-cost carrier, said on April 1st that the airline may face a fuel supply shortfall of up to 25% in May and June, with overall European aviation fuel supplies expected to tighten in May. OLeary also said that there is a possibility of a significant increase in airfares from April to June.On April 5th, Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying it had launched strikes against petrochemical plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, an oil refinery in Israel, and a natural gas facility in the UAE. Further attacks on civilian targets within Iran would further intensify the damage to US economic interests in the region.On April 5th, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has secured enough naphtha supplies to cover at least four months of demand, and the government is seeking to alleviate concerns about potential supply shortages. Takaichi said on social media on Sunday that these supplies include approximately two months worth of overseas procurement shipments and domestic refinery production, as well as approximately two months worth of inventory of intermediate chemical products derived from naphtha, such as polyethylene. According to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association, Japan relies on imports for about 60% of its naphtha, with over 70% coming from the Middle East. Major Japanese naphtha producers have already reduced production of this petroleum byproduct. Naphtha is widely used in the manufacture of plastic bottles, building materials, and electrical appliances.Ukraines state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, said that Russia attacked its facilities in the Poltava region for the second consecutive day.April 5 - According to data from LSEG and Kpler, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil was spotted transiting the Strait of Hormuz along a route close to the Iranian coast, one day after Iran indicated that Iraq could be exempted from restrictions on passage through this key shipping lane. Kpler data shows that the "Ocean Thunder" loaded approximately 1 million barrels of Basra Heavy crude oil on March 2 and is expected to unload in Pengerang, Malaysia, in mid-April.

Below 0.6350, AUD/USD draws bids; the downside is preferred before US CPI

Alina Haynes

Oct 10, 2022 11:30

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The AUD/USD pair has risen after dropping below immediate support near 0.6350 during the Asian session. Given that the market attitude is still unfavorable, the asset's outlook does not appear positive. The S&P 500 fell into a trance as a result of Friday's positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) numbers, which extended the US dollar index's (DXY) recovery.

 

At 112.88, the DXY in Tokyo has eclipsed the previous week's high and is expected to continue to rise as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy bets soar. The US NFP came in at 263k on Friday, more than the 250k forecast. Due to this, there is now a higher chance that interest rates will rise for a fourth consecutive time by 75 basis points (bps). A healthy labor market and stronger economic fundamentals are always required for the central bank to safely announce rate increases.

 

Rates have increased as the likelihood of a 75 basis point rate increase has increased. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond reached 3.9% and increased for four straight days.

 

Investors' attention will then turn to the publication of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday. Preliminary predictions indicate that headline inflation will drop from 8.5% to 8.1%. The core CPI, which does not include prices for food and energy, will rise from 6.3% to 6.5%. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates seems to be having little impact, but the drop in gas prices has started to have an impact on the headline inflation rate.

 

The consumer inflation expectations statistics are expected to be released later this week, according to the Australian bulls. The economic statistics are projected to increase to 5.8% from the previous report's 5.4%. This could encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to act (RBA). The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was raised by 25 basis points to 2.6% by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, and he plans to continue raising it until it reaches the desired level of 3.0%.

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