Bitcoin Forecast – Bearish Analog Supports $9500 Price Target

Will Bitcoin Capitulate? is the headline of a recent update. Bitcoin patterns that resemble one another, according to Benjamin Cowen, may indicate a 50% decline from present levels.

I explore remarkable connections that support this theory with a probable bitcoin objective of $9500 by mid-December by delving further into his investigation.

Cycles of Bitcoin

In case you didn't know, the bitcoin cycle reaches its pinnacle every four years. Prices often peak in the fourth quarter, just before a mid-term election (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.).

Why do prices surge a year ahead of the midterm elections? I believe the reason is that a split government results when one party loses control of the House or the Senate. A lack of liquidity results in a risk-off climate.

Future Price of Bitcoin

The benchmarks paralleling the 2018 breakdown pattern up to this point are listed below. Expect a post-election collapse to begin in November if the analog holds true.

Following the apex of the 4-year cycle, the price of bitcoin plunges over 70% over a rigorous 5- to 6-month period.

Prices reach their mid-year lows in June, on average, and then consolidate in a triangular shape.

Prices drop in October when political candidates square off; yet, prices discreetly trend upward as elections approach.

In November, a severe post-election collapse starts and lasts for nearly a month.

Note: In 2018, the post-election decrease was around 47%. A $9500 bitcoin aim is implied by a similar result in 2022.

What Maybe Wrong?

Bitcoin would need to end the triangular pattern and close above the August $25,212 pivot in order to invalidate the aforementioned analog. I would put a low likelihood on a positive conclusion and give a 70% chance on new lows.