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ECB Governing Council member Dorenz: The inflation situation has not yet been resolved, and there are sufficient reasons to raise interest rates in September. 1. Indias Ministry of Food stated in a press release, "The government has observed that in some cases, sugar sold by sugar mills at the beginning of the month is only picked up or shipped by buyers at the end of the month. This practice exacerbates artificial shortages in the market. To address this issue and ensure timely access to the market, the government has decided to implement a bi-weekly sugar allocation system starting in September, replacing the existing monthly quota system." 2. On August 28, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a ministerial meeting, emphasizing the need to focus on autumn grain field management and agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, striving for a bumper harvest and ensuring the achievement of the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin (600 million tons) of grain output. The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening and improving macro-control of the agricultural industry, focusing on stabilizing the production of livestock products such as hogs, and promoting reasonable prices. 3. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported selling 182,000 tons of soybeans to China, 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, 100,000 tons of soybean meal to Germany, and 100,000 tons of soybean meal to the Netherlands, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 4. Fed Chair Hamack: The Fed should raise interest rates; waiting will only bring pain. He does not believe financial conditions are tight. 5. Fed Chair Warsh warned that inflation has not shown a meaningful slowdown and said policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction, otherwise the central bank "has more work to do." Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed target. Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the Feds "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate. 6. US short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating increased bets on a Fed rate hike following Warshs remarks. 7. Fed Chair Warsh stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that the underlying trend of inflation has shown a meaningful improvement." "Market prices reflect the markets belief that we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the markets judgment is correct." Warsh then stated that with inflation above 2%, the Feds "primary focus right now should be prices." 8. According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Friday that inflation remains too high. He hinted that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to reduce inflation. This statement more clearly reflects his view on the economic situation than his previous remarks.On August 28th, George Catrambo, Head of Fixed Income for the Americas at DWS, said during a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, "Whatever you call it, this is exactly the forward guidance the market was expecting at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting." "Im listening to a Fed chairman who is likely to tighten monetary policy. Hes trying to maintain a balance in his speech, but the Fed will most likely raise rates."According to documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Nanjing Nuoling Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.On August 28th, Omar Sharif, an analyst at inflation research firm Inflation Insights, stated, "Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh gave the market what it wanted: a more detailed explanation of his views on current economic data, especially inflation data. Of course, he didnt reveal any potential future policy actions. In that sense, it seems to be a win-win situation for both Warsh and the market."

Asia Gains on U.S. Interest Rate Optimism; China Reopens

Charlie Brooks

Jan 09, 2023 10:22

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Monday's gains in Asian equities were driven by optimism on more moderate U.S. rate hikes and China's border opening.


The broadest Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index tracked by MSCI rose 0.6%, with South Korean stocks gaining 1.0%.


Nikkei futures traded at 26,235, compared to the cash close of 25,973 on Friday. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.


This week, large U.S. banks will begin reporting earnings, and Wall Street does not anticipate any year-over-year growth.


"Excluding Energy, S&P 500 EPS is anticipated to decline 5% due to margin compression," analysts at Goldman Sachs stated (NYSE:GS). The prognosis is grim as the earnings season approaches.


They stated, "We anticipate additional downward revisions to 2023 EPS estimates." The reopening of China represents an upside risk to EPS in 2023, whilst margin pressures, taxation, and recession are downside risks.


Beijing has unlocked borders that had been restricted since the COVID-19 outbreak, allowing a rise in traffic.


Analyst Winnie Wu of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) forecasts a cyclical upturn in China's economy in 2023, as well as market upside from multiple expansion and 10% EPS growth.


Last week, positive payroll gains, slower wage growth, and a decline in service-sector activity improved Wall Street confidence. Bets on Fed rate hikes decreased.


Futures imply a 25% chance of a 0.5 percentage point increase in February, down from 50% a month ago.


Investors will pay close attention to anything Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in Stockholm on Tuesday.


It also emphasizes Thursday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, which is anticipated to show annual inflation falling to a 15-month low of 6.5% and the core rate falling to 5.7%.


John Briggs, an analyst at NatWest Markets, stated, "We have lower CPI forecasts than the consensus, and if accurate, this will likely confirm 25bps versus 50bps."


Indicative of a funds rate between 5.5 and 5.25 percent, the Fed is expected to raise rates a couple more times and maintain them at elevated levels until inflation's decline is assured.


Friday's mixed data decreased 10-year interest rates by 15 basis points to 3.57% and weakened the U.S. dollar.


Monday morning found the euro at $1.0664, up from Friday's low of $1.0464. The dollar declined from 134.78 yen last week to 131.63 yen this week, and its index fell to 103.800.


Since hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters assaulted Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court, the Brazilian real had not been traded.


As the dollar and rates declined, gold reached a seven-month high of $1,870 per ounce.


Oil prices remain unchanged following an 8% decline last week due to demand concerns.


Brent increased 26 cents to $78.83 per barrel, while U.S. crude increased 30 cents to $70.77 per barrel.