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On November 4th, it was learned that U.S. Secretary of Defense (Secretary of Defense for War) Hergsays ordered that military personnel may no longer discuss key U.S. military matters with members of Congress or their staff without prior approval. These matters include President Trumps proposed Golden Dome missile defense system and the recent military strikes against suspected drug-smuggling vessels. This move marks a significant shift in how the military interacts with Congress, with lawmakers concerned that it will hinder congressional oversight of the Department of Defenses approximately $1 trillion budget. Under the new rule, all military personnel and related agencies must coordinate with Hergsays office before contacting Congress.The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision in ten minutes.1. Goldman Sachs: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, eliminating expectations of rate cuts in November and February. 2. Capital Economics: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as two more rate cuts are unlikely given the current economic rebound. 3. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the easing cycle may have ended prematurely, and expectations of a February rate cut have wavered. 4. ANZ: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, but a December rate cut is possible if economic activity performs significantly worse than expected. 5. Moodys Analytics: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady as inflationary pressures are increasing and the path to the target inflation range is becoming more difficult. 6. HSBC: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as deflationary momentum has completely stalled, and the RBAs next move may be a rate hike in 2027.On November 4th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.3150%, down 0.10 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4150%, up 0.30 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.4780%, up 0.90 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5460%, unchanged from the previous trading day; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5940%, down 0.10 basis points.The Singapore dollar fell 0.2% against the US dollar to 1.307, its lowest level since May 12.

As The Dollar Rises, Oil Falls Despite Russian Supply Cuts

Skylar Williams

Feb 27, 2023 14:11

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Oil prices dipped in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and concerns of recession risks offset gains from Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts.


At 04:11 GMT, West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude futures (WTI) were trading 23 cents or 0.3% lower at $76.09 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 30 cents or 0.36% at $82.86 per barrel.


Friday's closing prices for both indices were up by more than 90 cents.


Monday, the dollar hovered near a seven-week high after a slew of strong U.S. economic data bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates further and for an extended period of time.


A strong dollar increases the cost of U.S. dollar-priced goods for foreign currency holders.


Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights, stated, "Crude continues to receive direction from the broader financial markets' sentiment."


Fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve returned to the forefront on Friday after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.6% in January, following a 0.2% increase in December.


"Crude will undoubtedly face renewed pressure if risk aversion continues to grow," Hari predicted.


Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories reached their highest level since May 2021, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This development added to the downward pressure on crude oil prices.


"The EIA data continue to generate more questions rather than provide clarity on markets," analysts at the consulting firm Energy Aspects wrote in a note, referring to the steep supply adjustment in the data that contributed to the increase.


On the supply side, Russia intends to reduce oil exports from its western ports by as much as 25% in March compared to February, exceeding its previously announced 5% production cut for the month.


Since February 24, 2022, when Russian military entered Ukraine for the first time, oil prices have decreased by approximately six percent annually.


Russia ceased oil deliveries to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, the CEO of Polish refiner PKN Orlen said on Saturday, a day after Poland delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine.


Two weeks after the invasion, oil prices soared to a record high of nearly $128 per barrel due to supply worries, but have since retreated due to fears of a global economic decline.


Separately, investors are awaiting this week's China manufacturing surveys to determine the direction of crude demand. This weekend marks the beginning of China's annual parliamentary session, during which new economic policy goals and guidelines will be introduced.


Ning Zhang, senior China economist at UBS Investment Bank, said in a note: "We anticipate the government to reiterate the importance of growth support and call for more policy support."


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