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August 26th - US inflation unexpectedly remained unchanged in July, marking the 65th consecutive month significantly above the Federal Reserves 2% target. The recent decline in inflation after reaching high levels, influenced by the Iran war, has stalled, potentially exacerbating tensions within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to raise or maintain interest rates. Data released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Feds preferred indicator, the US PCE price index, rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, unchanged from June, compared to analysts expectations of 3.6%. With trade negotiations between the US and its second-largest trading partner, Canada, breaking down on Friday, a new round of tariff-driven inflationary pressures may be imminent. On a month-on-month basis, the PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, also exceeding economists expectations. In June, the index fell 0.1% month-on-month, the lowest level since April 2020. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also updated its second-quarter economic growth data, maintaining the annualized growth rate of US real GDP at 1.5%.August 26th - Market pricing indicates a slight increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month. This follows data released by the US government showing that the Feds key inflation gauge rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, slightly higher than economists expectations. Interest rate futures data shows that after the data release, the market expects a 42% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from approximately 36% before the data release.On August 26th, Alibabas Qianwen released the Qwen3.8-Flash model. This is a multimodal MoE model and an early preview version of the Qwen4 architecture. The production version of Qwen3.8-Flash will soon be available through the Qwen Cloud API, priced at only $0.16 per 1 million input tokens and $0.47 per 1 million output tokens. The model boasts 125 billion parameters + 51 billion N-gram embedding parameters, but each token only activates 6 billion parameters, achieving extremely high cost-effectiveness.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine will send two additional troops to reinforce the Donetsk front.U.S. short-term interest rate futures pared earlier gains slightly after the release of U.S. economic data.

Are Stock Prices Still Forming a Bottom?

Florala Chen

Jan 05, 2023 15:10

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Is this a probable bottoming pattern for the S&P 500 as its consolidation continues to grow?


After starting above its closing price on Friday, the broad stock market index fell by 0.40% on Tuesday.


It prolonged a consolidation near the 3,800 level that had lasted more than two weeks. It dropped to a new mid-term low of 3,764.49 on Thursday of the prior week before rising back over 3,800. Overall, it continued to prolong a consolidation that had started after the drop from 4,100. The December 14 FOMC interest rate rise, among other things, caused the S&P 500 to decline in mid-December.


This morning, the S&P 500 is most likely to start off 0.3% higher. Another effort to break above the current trading range could be made.