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According to Coinbase, Bitcoin is trading near the day's lows at roughly $45,700

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 09:53

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin 

Bitcoin's most active contract month (April BTCJ2022) is trading near $45,845 on the CME's futures market. Some analysts are expecting the gap on the CME futures chart that formed between last Friday and Monday to be filled.

 

With the BTC on the CME only minutes away from a 1-hour break before re-opening on Globex, it appears like the weekend gap ($45,395 – $46,565) will be close to being eliminated, but will not be totally backfilled as of today.

 

image.png 

 

Another distinguishing feature of the CME chart over Spot charts is the presence of the 200-day simple moving average (red line). This long-term moving average is located at $48,300 in the spot market and effectively signals current resistance. While the 200-day moving average (M.A.) on the CME futures chart had been resistance since the beginning of 2022, it was breached on Monday when the price gap was developed.

 

The 200-day moving average in CME futures is $45,880, and while the market slipped below this average intra-day, as the day's trading comes to a close, this average may become support since prices are just around $100 below this long-term technical indicator.

 

Back in the spot markets, we can observe that the last two days correspond to a relatively shallow correction after the run that began in the middle of March and put BTC above $48,000.

 

image.png 

 

Looking at the charts above, we can see that the commencement of the retracement is based on two independent data sets. The 23 percent retracement level from the last 16 days (in blue) and the last 35 days (in purple) both imply that the 23 percent level is significant and stays active as either support or resistance.

 

This level is often considered as the bare minimum for classifying a price decrease as a retracement. As a result, Bitcoin closing above this level bodes favorably for bulls and indicates that there is likely more upside to come.

Bitcon Price Prediction

The last two days have done little damage to the chart, and our target for the conclusion, which might reach as high as $53,000, remains in our current model. Traders who have been taking our calls took profits on half of their positions yesterday at $48,000 and continue to be long the other half of their positions at $43,000. Protective stops should be ignored; prices came within $16 of stopping us out with a profit (on the remaining half), with lows of $45,516.

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