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AUD/USD has maintained a multi-day bottom under 0.6700 as Q2 GDP is mixed and focus switches to Fedspeak

Daniel Rogers

Sep 07, 2022 16:47

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In the wake of contradictory Aussie data and a risk-averse atmosphere during Wednesday's Asian session, the AUD/USD strengthened its bearish bias towards the 0.6700 level and dropped to its lowest level since July 14. Risk barometer pair ignores Australia's efforts to tame inflation-driven economic woes ahead of next month's annual budget presentation.

 

Australian GDP for Q2 slowed to 0.9% from 1.0% expected and 0.8% in the previous quarter. Compared to the market consensus of 3.5% and prior readings of 3.3%, the year-over-year numbers imply a growth rate of 3.6%. The AiG Performance of Services Index for Australia topped 53.3 in August, up from 51.7 earlier in the day.

 

The government of Australia plans to cut the cost of pharmaceuticals and provide assistance to seniors in light of rising inflation. In anticipation of next month's federal budget, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that legislation would be introduced to reduce the maximum co-payment on Australia's pharmaceutical benefits scheme from A$42.50 ($20) per prescription to A$30 ($20). It was also reported that pensioners will receive financial incentives from the government to help them sell their larger homes and move into smaller ones, thus lowering the strain on their retirement savings.

 

However, mounting fears of economic slowdown due to the energy crisis and China's covid troubles, combined with stronger US data and hawkish Fed bets, have supported the US dollar. Despite this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading near its 20-year highs, with intraday advances of 0.22 percent near 110.50. CME's FedWatch Tool recently predicted a 50 bps rate hike in September, up from 57 bps the day before.

 

The 10-year US Treasury rate soared to its highest level since mid-June as Wall Street ended in the red, mirroring the general mood. Commodity prices, including oil and gold, continued under pressure, suggesting risk aversion and adding pressure to the AUD/USD exchange rate, which contributed to a decline in S&P 500 Futures of 0.50%.

 

Before the Fed's statement, the AUD/USD will be affected by China's August trade numbers. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will both speak on Thursday, and their remarks will be widely studied for signs of policy shifts.

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