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On December 17th, the British government announced in a statement that it would begin negotiations with the European Union on electricity market integration. London further noted that progress in these negotiations could reduce electricity costs for British citizens. The British government commented, "Closer electricity cooperation will bring real benefits to businesses and consumers across the UK, boost investment in the North Sea region, and strengthen energy security." Both sides also "set a deadline next year for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and carbon market interconnection" before the 2026 UK-EU summit.Market news: Mexico has lifted tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."Preliminary plans indicate that Angola will load 29 tankers of crude oil in February, compared to 30 tankers planned for January.On December 17th, Ukraines top military commander, Sergei Syrsky, stated on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern town of Kupyansk. This came days after the Ukrainian president declared a victory for Ukrainian forces against Russian troops in Kupyansk. "Thanks to active search and strike operations, we have successfully driven [Russian troops] out of Kupyansk and taken control of nearly 90% of the towns territory," Syrsky wrote.

AUD/USD falls approaching 0.7200 despite the former RBA governor's aggressive forecasts

Alina Haynes

Jun 08, 2022 11:59

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Bears and buyers continue to fight for position around 0.7220-25 as sentiment is mixed and investors remain cautious ahead of the week's big data/events. In doing so, the Australian duo struggles to defend the hawkish remarks of former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Ian Macfarlane.

 

Ex-RBA Governor Macfarlane warned early Wednesday morning about chronically rising inflation and the need to drastically increase interest rates. The former policymaker also stated, "There is sufficient scarcity in Australia and the United States to maintain a high inflation rate."

 

In contrast, China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen joined China's Vice Finance Minister Zou Jiayi in reiterating concerns about a global economic downturn and a decline in demand. Recent consensus among policymakers held that the rise of global demand is slowing.

 

It's worth noting that a rebound in US Treasury rates and apprehension ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, tend to stifle the AUD/USD pair's movements.

 

In spite of this, 10-year US Treasury note rates jump two basis points (bps) to 2.99 percent the day after breaking a six-day downward trend. A record decline in the US trade deficit and optimism on the US budget appear to have prompted a recall of US Treasury bond sellers. The US trade deficit for April decreased 19.1 percent from the previous day to USD87.1 billion.

 

Other market optimists were defended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and optimism for a quicker economic rebound in China. Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke before the Senate Finance Committee about the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget while stating that the US economy faced problems from "unsustainable levels of inflation" and supply chain disruptions. The official said, "An adequate budget is necessary to support the Fed's efforts to control inflation without damaging the labor market."

 

It should be noted that World Bank (WB) President David Malpass's warning that faster-than-anticipated tightening might force certain nations into a debt crisis akin to that of the 1980s appears to have impacted on the quotation as of late. The risk-negative news from Ukraine may follow a similar trajectory. Politico reported that Ukraine has not yet achieved a deal with Russia or Turkey to enable the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, casting doubt on a U.N. initiative to build a crucial food corridor.

Technical Evaluation

A two-week-old support line protects AUD/USD buyers at 0.7205. However, the 200-day moving average and the recent top, located around 0.7255 and 0.7285, may challenge the Aussie pair's upside before the bulls regain control.