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On September 10th, according to two sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether Nvidia (NVDA.O) attempted to circumvent antitrust scrutiny in connection with a deal signed last year with artificial intelligence chip maker Groq. Groq described the deal at the time as a "non-exclusive licensing agreement" allowing Nvidia to use Groq chips specifically designed by Groq for running AI tasks. As part of the arrangement, Groq CEO Jonathan Ross and COO Sonny Madeira joined Nvidia. AI companies have entered into numerous similar deals, including licensing technology and hiring key personnel from other companies, but without making direct acquisitions. These arrangements often circumvent the automatic government review of traditional mergers and acquisitions, which aims to determine whether a transaction would harm market competition.According to the New York Times, regulators are investigating a licensing agreement between Nvidia and Groq.September 10th - The seventh batch of national centralized procurement of medical consumables will open for bidding today (September 10th) in Tianjin. This round of procurement focuses on digestive interventional medical consumables, including 23 varieties, covering consumables related to gastrointestinal polyp removal and biliary and pancreatic interventional therapy, with a procurement cycle of approximately 3 years. This round of procurement adheres to the principles of "stabilizing clinical needs, ensuring quality, preventing internal competition, and preventing bid rigging," optimizing procurement rules, and balancing the protection of diverse clinical needs with high-quality development of the industry.September 10th - According to Axios, the Trump administration plans to issue $500 refund checks to up to one million people who claim they were overcharged under the Obamacare scheme. These direct deposits will be distributed to residents of 30 states ahead of the November 3rd midterm elections; this comes as Trump heavily promotes the cost savings of his tax cuts and prescription drug program.On September 10th, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released its Goods Trade Barometer on September 9th, showing an index of 102.0, higher than the baseline of 100 and the previous index of 101.7 in June, indicating that goods trade is above trend and continuing to grow. The WTO stated that despite ongoing geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, global goods trade growth remains resilient. The negative impact of the Middle East conflict continues to be partially offset by strong demand for goods such as artificial intelligence-related electronic components. According to the WTOs rules for compiling the Global Goods Trade Barometer, a value of 100 is the baseline; an index greater than 100 indicates that global goods trade growth is higher than expected, while a value lower than 100 indicates that growth is lower than expected.

AUD/USD and JPY Are in Focus as APAC Trading Begins Amid Fed Bets and BOJ Scrutiny

Drake Hampton

Apr 25, 2022 10:30

Asia-Pacific Outlook for Monday

The risk-averse Last week, the Australian Dollar fell sharply against the US Dollar as markets adjusted to growing hawkish shifts in Fed rate hike bets. As a result of these shifts, short-term Treasury yields increased as traders sold government bonds. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 'front-loading' of tightening, with 50 basis point hikes favored as the base case scenario for the next four FOMC meetings.

 

Apart from the Fed and rate hike bets, the market will be watching Australia's first-quarter inflation data due Wednesday. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise to 4.6 percent year over year. This would be an increase from 3.6 percent year on year in Q4. A stronger-than-expected print may rekindle some bullish energy in the Australian Dollar, as bets on an RBA rate hike may strengthen in response to the strong price data. As of Friday, cash rate futures indicated a low probability of a rate hike at the RBA's May meeting.

 

The Japanese Yen will also be under focus this week, as the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its April policy decision on Thursday. Rate traders do not anticipate a change in the benchmark rate, although they do anticipate an update to the bank's inflation targets. USD/JPY increased for a seventh straight week, owing to the BOJ's vigorous bond buying aimed at limiting rates. Last week, USD/JPY one-week risk reversals went into negative territory, indicating that options traders may be favoring some short-term Yen gains.

 

Elsewhere, the March trade balance for New Zealand will be released, which may cause some volatility in the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD declined last week as a result of the general risk-off sentiment that drove the majority of APAC currencies lower against the USD. This is despite the fact that bets for an RBNZ rate hike have firmed. The Kiwi Dollar's fall was almost certainly also a result of lower metal prices, which have been weighed down by both a stronger US Dollar and weakening demand as China's crackdown continues. 

Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD

The march bottom is clearly in focus after AUD/USD plunged this week, slicing through its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). If prices fall below 0.7162, this might spark bearish sentiment sufficiently to push prices near the critical 0.7000 level. Recently, both the MACD and RSI oscillators produced bearish signals, with a cross below their respective center lines. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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