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According to Iran Petroleum News Network (SNN): Iran has activated its air defense system in the center of Tehran.Futures June 19th news, silver prices have accelerated since the beginning of June, the macro is due to the positive signal released by the high-level call between China and the United States, which has led to a rebound in risk appetite, resulting in a weak dollar and a generally warm commodity market atmosphere. In addition, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has also boosted silver prices to a certain extent. It is worth noting that the recent performance of gold prices is relatively sluggish, which has accelerated the downward trend of the gold-silver price ratio. In the short term, although the geopolitical situation has boosted inflation expectations, it is contrary to the Feds policy goal of controlling inflation. Once the Fed releases a strong hawkish signal because of fear of inflation expectations being de-anchored, such as reducing the number of interest rate cuts within the year or compressing the entire interest rate cut cycle, the rise in inflation expectations may be unsustainable. For silver, considering that the trend of deglobalization and weakening of the US dollars credit is still there, the price performance of gold is generally stronger than that of silver, so it should be a high probability event to push the gold-silver price center upward.On June 19, CICC Research reported that the Fed kept its June meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. Officials believe that policy uncertainty has decreased, but they still lowered their growth forecasts and raised their inflation path judgment. The dot plot retains the judgment of two interest rate cuts this year, but the details have become marginally "hawkish", showing the cautious view within the Fed. Powell remains cautious about inflation risks and said that no one has strong confidence in the interest rate path he wrote. We believe that the Fed has no intention of rushing to cut interest rates, and policymakers will not act rashly in the face of inflation if the economy allows waiting. We maintain our previous view that the Feds next interest rate cut may be in the fourth quarter.On June 19, according to the Israeli Air Force, in the early morning of the 19th local time, due to possible drone attacks, air defense alarms were sounded in many places in northern Israel and the Jordan Valley. Subsequently, the Israeli Air Force intercepted two drones launched from Iran. According to Iranian news, on the 19th local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned relevant personnel to evacuate immediately from a hotel in Tel Aviv, Israel. It is said that since the outbreak of this round of Israeli-Iranian conflict, Israels Channel 12 has been broadcasting in the hotel.June 19th news, early this morning, OpenAI released a 40-minute in-depth interview with its co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This interview is very technical. Altman talked about the core product GPT-5 that everyone is very concerned about. It is likely to be released this summer, but the product time will be extended due to naming, security testing, function iteration and other reasons. It also talked about the high-performance o3 model and the intelligent agent Deep Research, and the importance of these products to the realization of AGI. In addition, Altman also mentioned OpenAIs other innovative products, including Sora, DALL-E 3, ChatGPT Junior and the $500 billion investment project "Stargate". Basically all of OpenAIs important products, current plans and future developments appeared in this interview.

AUD/NZD falls 60 pips as RBNZ meets market expectations for a 50 bps rate hike

Alina Haynes

Feb 22, 2023 15:18

As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued its much awaited interest rate decision early Wednesday morning in Europe, the AUD/NZD pair dropped almost 60 pips to 1.0980. In doing so, the cross-currency pair disregards geopolitical concerns regarding China and North Korea, as well as concerns of a less aggressive RBNZ response in the wake of natural disasters in New Zealand.

 

In spite of this, the RBNZ announced its eleventh rate hike as officials attempt to control inflation fears, increasing the benchmark rate by 0.50 percentage points to 4.75 percent, for a total increase of 1.50 percentage points. In the quarterly Rate Announcement that followed the RBNZ's decision, it was said, "There are early signs of pricing pressures abating." The same should apply to the AUD/NZD currency pair bearish.

 

Other from this, the most notable market sentiment detractors were the remarks of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Notwithstanding this, US Secretary of State Blinken indicated that the United States fears China may provide military help to Russia. Similarities exist between the market issues of the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement. Russia terminated its nuclear arms agreement with the United States and pledged to maintain its military presence in Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed both houses of parliament in his state of the nation address to the Russian Federal Assembly. During the speech, Russian President Putin emphasized the geopolitical turmoil surrounding Ukraine by stating, "Our mission is to drive our economy to new horizons." Similarly, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo indicated on Tuesday, "The United States and its partners will apply additional sanctions this week to continue isolating Russia over the conflict in Ukraine."

 

US 10-year and 2-year Treasury note rates fluctuate near the three-month highs achieved the day before, while S&P 500 Futures record moderate gains despite Wall Street's negative closing price.

 

After monitoring the first reaction to the RBNZ's announcement, AUD/NZD pair traders should focus on risk triggers, particularly those pertaining to China and Russia, to determine the pair's direction. If geopolitical concerns continue to threaten market optimism, the price may continue to decrease.



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