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Poland signs $3.8 billion deal to boost F-16 fleet capabilities.On August 13, CNBC reported that two unnamed government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unnamed names. These new members include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, and BlackRocks Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder. They join the eight candidates previously confirmed by CNBC: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson. Officials also confirmed that the list also includes Mark Summerlin, a former economic adviser in the Bush administration; Dallas Fed President Logan; and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Officials described a "deliberative process" in which Treasury Secretary Bessant will meet with all candidates, whittle down the list, and present the final list to the president for a decision. The size of the list and the process described suggest a decision is not imminent and could take considerable time. However, officials declined to provide a timeline.On August 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that the Federal Reserves interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and that if the data were accurate, the Fed could have cut rates earlier. Bessant believes a 50 basis point rate cut is possible, with a series of cuts likely starting in September. Regarding the selection of the Fed chair, he mentioned that they will cast a wide net, encompassing 10-11 people. He also stated that he had proposed establishing a "shadow Fed chair" but now believes it is unnecessary. Furthermore, Bessant believes the Fed does not need to resume large-scale asset purchases (QE). Regarding the jobs report, he expressed opposition to halting its release, but emphasized the need for reliable data. Some analysts say the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is now almost zero. For this to happen, another weak non-farm payroll report would likely be needed in September.According to CNBC: Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires in May this year, including three people who have never been publicly nominated before. The new candidates include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey and BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder.On August 13, Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, stated in a statement: "Hong Kongs banking system is well-capitalized, adequately provisioned, and financially strong to withstand market volatility." While credit risks facing the banking system have increased in recent years amidst the ongoing macroeconomic challenges, the banks profit models remain unaffected. I would also like to take this opportunity to clarify earlier rumors regarding "bad banks." The establishment of "bad banks" is an extraordinary measure taken when banks face serious balance sheet problems and is completely inconsistent with the current sound operations and strong financial position of Hong Kongs banks.

AUDJPY fails to exceed 94.00 prior to Australian Employment data

Alina Haynes

Nov 16, 2022 15:00

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The AUDJPY pair faces headwinds in the early Tokyo session as it attempts to hold above the important support level of 94.00. The asset has encountered resistance at 94.50 and is projected to stay volatile until the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.

 

As geopolitical tensions increase, the value of the cross has decreased. Following the expansion of Russian separatist military action into Poland, the risk profile has deteriorated. Russia has denied any participation in the incident, while Poland has demanded a meeting with NATO countries.

 

Despite the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Tuesday, the risk indicator remained relatively stable. In spite of an extraordinary spike in inflation to 7.3%, the RBA minutes showed a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.

 

The board concurred that acting consistently on policy rates would enhance the public's and financial market participants' faith in the monetary policy framework. In addition, RBA policymakers believed that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) had risen substantially in a short time. In addition, the anticipated interest rate has been raised to 8%.

 

Meanwhile, Japanese investors reacted less harshly to Tuesday's disappointing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Contrary to forecasts of 0.3% growth and a previous declaration of 0.9%, the Japanese economy contracted 0.3% during the third quarter. Compared to the expected expansion of 1.1% and the prior release of 3.5%, the economic catalyst has revealed a negative growth rate of 1.2% on an annualized basis.

 

This week, the most important asset trigger will be the Australian payroll data. According to the consensus, the economy added 15,000 jobs in October, compared to a paltry gain of 900 jobs in September. The predicted unemployment rate is 3.6%, up from 3.5% in the previous report.


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