A hidden crisis in the global job market, gold bulls are expected to regain control of the overall situation

At present, the problems facing the global job market may be more complicated. The survey shows that as the economy recovers after the epidemic, companies' demand for employees will greatly increase, but a substantial increase in wages alone may not be able to eliminate the impact of the current turbulent and distorted global labor market. If future wage growth determines whether overall inflation will continue to soar this year, then workers, companies, policy makers, and investors all need to wear seat belts for the next year.

The battle for talent is gradually intensifying, and companies are exhausting their means to attract employees

A survey released by HSBC this week surveyed more than 2,000 business leaders in 10 countries and concluded that fierce competition for talent means that companies must consider how to attract and retain employees from the side. The survey shows that to achieve the goal of 20% revenue growth, companies expect the number of employees to increase by 13% in the next 12 months , with companies in the United States, Mexico and India leading in this regard.

More than 40% of people plan to increase their workforce by more than 20%, and more than two-thirds of business leaders’ companies have initiated recruitment or retraining. However, although nearly half of the companies still regard salary and economic benefits as the main factors to ensure talents, the other half believe that in the post-epidemic hiring boom and the battle to retain existing employees, flexible work, geographic location and " "Welfare" policies are equally important.

This investigation is not a special case. Management consulting firm McKinsey pointed out in a report entitled "Major layoffs" that the number of employees who are resigning or considering resignation has set a record. Since April this year, more than 15 million American employees have resigned. McKinsey believes that for employees seeking flexibility and a stronger sense of mission, belonging and identity, in addition to financial incentives, companies are also trying to understand the reasons from other aspects.

The survey covers employment populations in five countries including Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore and the United States. The study found that in health, education, leisure, hotels, and white-collar industries, 40% of people expect that they may be in the next 6 Resigned in months. Even more striking is that in the past six months, more than one-third of people voluntarily resigned without another job . (As shown below)

Changes in wages create potential risks, and it is not known whether inflation will be affected

Although corporate incentives for talent may seem trivial, the sensitivity of these labor markets may have a profound impact on the macro economy. From the US non-agricultural employment report coming out this week to the truck driver shortage that has brought chaos to the UK, and the upward pressure on wages in general, all will have a profound impact on the financial market, especially considering the energy crisis facing the market this winter. .

Although major central banks insist that the 3-5% inflation rate in Europe and the United States this summer is temporary, and this inflation is only caused by the supply chain bottleneck caused by the epidemic. However, if wage levels continue in the next 12 months, this theory will be hit.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said last month: “Only when wages rise sharply, can inflation continue to rise from the low level before the outbreak.”

The OECD believes that overall wage pressures are still moderate. But the report does point out that some "contact-intensive" industries that the United States has recently reopened have seen substantial growth, such as leisure and hospitality, as well as temporary labor shortages that seem to be occurring in small businesses in Europe.


(Wage trends in the United States, Germany and Japan-left; average hourly wage growth in August in the United States-right)

It also emphasized that the impact of the retention and unpaid leave plans of ongoing or expiring positions, as well as broader company support, will distort the results of salary level statistics. The true health of the global labor market may not be known until next year. And, at least for many wealthier job seekers, the massive lockdown of savings in the past 18 months may encourage them to retire early, extend their career breaks, or reconsider their targeted work and residence more seriously.

At present, volatile employment data has confused many analysts. The recent expectation that the Fed will reduce the size of its debt structure during the year has put pressure on gold prices. On Wednesday, spot gold fell to US$1,745.99, then rebounded in European time and recovered the intraday decline. It is worth noting that if wage levels continue to rise or employment is always difficult to make a major breakthrough, concerns about inflation may bring strong momentum to the gold market in the coming year.


(Spot gold daily chart)

At 20:48 on October 6, GMT+8, spot gold was quoted at $1,759.75 per ounce.