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Real-time News
July 15th - The Japanese governments push for pension funds and individual investors to increase their allocation to the domestic market is seen as a potential long-term boost to Japanese bonds and the yen. However, analysts believe that unless the direction of fiscal and monetary policies changes, it is unlikely to have a significant impact in the short term. Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen, stated that fiscal policy and the path of interest rate hikes still need further clarification. The Bank of Japans reduced bond purchases, continued increases in government bond issuance, and the re-establishment of term premiums will continue to dominate the market outlook. Strategists at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, including Koichi Sugisaki, stated that pension funds purchases of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds may not increase as significantly as the market initially expected. They believe that the Japanese governments initiative is more likely aimed at encouraging increased domestic investment across the entire financial system rather than specifically guiding funds into government bonds. They stated, "Therefore, from the perspective of the domestic bond market, this announcement is more like verbal intervention, its main function being to keep the risk of capital outflows in the markets view."July 15th Futures News: 1. International oil prices have risen by more than 11% in just two trading days this week, the largest two-day percentage increase since mid-March. As of July 14th, WTI crude oil futures for the first month rose by $7.93 per barrel, an increase of 11.10%; Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose by $8.72 per barrel, an increase of 11.47%. Shipping activity in the Gulf region has slowed significantly as risks continue to escalate. Shipping data shows that from July 11th to 13th, confirmed passage of ships carrying commodities fell to 11 per day, compared to 30 per day from July 1st to 10th. 2. Deutsche Bank believes that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with Trumps renewed hardline rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily increase in Brent crude oil on the 13th was the largest since 2020, reigniting concerns about stagflation and pushing up interest rate expectations and global bond yields. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical risks have also contributed to this situation.July 15th - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that, according to preliminary calculations, Chinas GDP in the first half of the year reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices. Looking at the quarterly figures, GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the second quarter. Regarding the fluctuations in GDP growth in the second quarter, Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that the fundamentals of stable economic operation and the trend towards new and better development remain unchanged. The GDP fluctuations were mainly affected by some short-term and external factors. The most significantly affected sectors were petrochemical-related industries and coal production, while other industries remained normal.On July 15th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, enterprises placed greater emphasis on research and development innovation, continuously increasing investment in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In terms of proportion, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the Taiwanese military held its first "joint defense exercise" this week, simulating "threat scenarios such as detecting enemy ships setting sail and entering territorial waters," in order to respond to potential threats. What is your comment on this? Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that the DPP authorities attempt to seek "independence" through force, escalating cross-strait confrontation, is the main culprit for the tense and unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait. Faced with the powerful Peoples Liberation Army, no matter how many exercises the DPP authorities conduct, it is all posturing and futile. It cannot change the inevitable defeat of "Taiwan independence," nor can it stop the historical trend of the inevitable reunification of the motherland.
