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December 18th - From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, bond market interest rates experienced a rapid and significant decline, resulting in over-pricing of monetary policy easing and weakening fundamentals. Following the interest rate cut in May 2025, the 10-year Treasury bond yield did not decline significantly and continued to rise in the second half of the year despite minimal marginal changes in fundamentals, to some extent correcting the previous over-pricing. Looking ahead to 2026, the impact of monetary policy is expected to be more neutral, with marginal improvements in fundamentals gradually becoming the main logic for bond market interest rate pricing. Considering the diversion of funds from the bond market due to new regulations on mutual funds and the rectification of wealth management valuations, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is more likely to shift slightly upward, mainly operating within the 1.6%-2.0% range.The USD/KRW pair rose, last trading at 1477.65, after South Korea relaxed its capital controls on overseas dollar lending.Bank of Thailand Governor: Gold trading is affecting the Thai baht.On December 18th, PTA prices initially fell before rising this week, primarily due to a rebound in crude oil prices. Easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an oversupply of crude oil caused Brent crude to fall to a near four-year low, negatively impacting the PTA market. However, Trumps order to blockade oil tankers in a South American country led to a rebound in European and American crude oil futures from their near four-year lows. This week, the PTA supply and demand situation remained relatively stable, with PTA operating rates stable and downstream demand slightly recovering due to the commissioning of 300,000 tons of new polyester capacity. Next week, a 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to restart. Attention should be paid to the impact of the South American geopolitical situation on crude oil prices, as cost support is expected. A slight increase in PTA prices is anticipated in the short term.On December 18th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.2730%, down 0.20 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4260%, down 0.20 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5820%, up 11.10 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5500%, up 0.90 basis points; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.6030%, up 0.20 basis points.

Recognize uptrend

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

For prices, there are only three trends:

1. Price rise

2. Prices fall

3. Price shock, that is, the price has no obvious upward or downward trend.


In each case, we can buy and sell to obtain profit from the price difference.


Price rise

The performance of price rise:

Consists of a continuous raise, each raise continues to cross the previous high point, and the mixed decline in the middle will not fall below the previous low point. In short, an uptrend is composed of a series of price movements, in which both highs and lows continue to rise.


It is easy to understand by looking at the price trend chart:

1599461627762526.png


Seeing that the price is going all the way up, it is clear that we should buy, wait for the price to rise, and then sell. The price difference is our profit.


In any period of uptrend, connecting two adjacent price low points is called an uptrend line.


Observing the features of the uptrend chart, there are many opportunities to buy:

1. When the decline has not broken the previous low

2. When the price breaks through the previous high


When an uptrend occurs, the trend will not change easily, and we can make profits through continuous buying transactions.


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